NHL point projections: How we see 2026-27 season unfolding

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NHL season points projections are a tough task because there are so many unknowns.

A team might look great on paper and then fall apart because of injuries. Just look at the Florida Panthers last season. Their three-peat bid was nearly over before it began when Aleksander Barkov tore his ACL in training camp. But he's back this year.

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A team might win the offseason but then struggle to find chemistry. Look at the Nashville Predators two seasons ago when they missed the playoffs after adding Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault.

The Toronto Maple Leafs led the league in offseason moves this year, adding a new general manager, coach, No. 1 goaltender, top defenseman and making changes to every offensive line. But with the shortened preseason, can they find the right combinations?

Here are our NHL points projections for the 2026-27 season.

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Pacific Division

  • Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are hoping new coach Mike Babcock will push the Oilers to greater success.
  • The Golden Knights traded Pavel Dorofeyev (37 goals) to the Rangers. Can new coach Ryan Craig find a way to make up for that lost offense?
  • New Sharks captain Macklin Celebrini will try to build on his team-record 2025-26 season. San Jose also added size and experience to the blue line.
  • The Ducks had to move out players to accommodate big salaries for Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier. The defense seems weaker.
  • The Kings start the post-Anze Kopitar era with coach Peter Laviolette, who's known for success in his first year with a team. He gets to work with Artemi Panarin again.
  • Mackie Samoskevich, the Kraken's offseason acquisition, is hurt to begin the season.
  • Flames goalie Dustin Wolf needs a huge season or Calgary's playoff drought will hit five seasons.
  • The Canucks have a new coach, Manny Malhotra, but few other additions to 2025-26's last-place team. Thatcher Demko and Filip Chytil are hurt.

Central Division

  • The Avalanche lost some forward depth but have the high-end talent to win the Presidents' Trophy again.
  • The Stars bring back nearly all of the players for last year's 112-point team, except for promising forward Mavrik Bourque.
  • The Wild, who need center depth, weren't able to swing a deal for Detroit's Dylan Larkin.
  • The Mammoth could push for 100 points after adding Anders Lee and Vincent Trocheck to join their younger stars.
  • The Blues came close to a playoff berth last season. They'll be in the mix again this season, especially if Mason McTavish thrives in his new city.
  • New Predators GM Chris MacFarland had success with the Avalanche and brought some of that team's role players with him.
  • The Jets must cope with Connor Hellebuyck's absence after the star goalie requested a trade. They struggled last season, even with Hellebuyck.
  • The Blackhawksgot better in the offseason but they'll be without injured Connor Bedard until early November.

Atlantic Division

  • The 2024 and 2025 champion Panthers are rested after missing the playoffs and they are mostly healthy. They'll be among the top teams again.
  • The Canadiens, who went to the conference finals, added veteran power-play specialist Chris Kreider to their group of younger players
  • Lightning captain Victor Hedman is back, and John Carlson will take the place of defenseman Darren Raddysh.
  • The Sabres won't be as strong without Bowen Byram and Alex Tuch, but they should be a playoff team again.
  • The Bruins will be without defenseman Charlie McAvoy for the first six games because of his playoff suspension, but new captain David Pastrnak and company remain a playoff threat.
  • New GM John Chayka's trade for Kirill Marchenko continues a remake that affects the Maple Leafs from top to bottom.
  • The Red Wings need to get defenseman Simon Edvinsson signed and figure out a solution to Larkin's trade request.
  • Former captain Brady Tkachuk is in Florida with brother Matthew. That's a big loss for the Senators.

Metropolitan Division

  • The defending champion Hurricanes are mostly the same and are a repeat threat. They'll certainly win the Metropolitan Division.
  • The Capitals have multiple 30-goal scorers in newcomers Tuch and Jordan Kyrou, plus returning star Alex Ovechkin.
  • The Devils were inconsistent last season on right wing and addressed it with Anthony Mantha and Luke Evangelista.
  • The Penguins open the season with Bryan Rust and Ben Kindel on the injured list.
  • Dorofeyev and Sean Durzi make the Rangers deeper, but it might not be enough for a playoff return.
  • The Flyers raved about Matvei Michkov's training camp. The key will be Dan Vladar providing solid goaltending again.
  • Matthew Knies is a nice return for Marchenko. The Blue Jackets need to play like they did when coach Rick Bowness joined the team rather how they did down the stretch.
  • Coach Peter DeBoer gets a full season behind the Islanders bench. He'll need to coax more offense out of the team.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NHL point projections: How we see 2026-27 season unfolding

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