Fantasy Football: Dalton Kincaid's breakout season is finally here as Travis Kelce turns back the clock

· Yahoo Sports

Target data is something we need to consider every week, but it doesn’t stop there. Every week we’ll jump into the spreadsheets and try to figure out what’s going on with pass-catchers, who’s popping (or slumping) and some of the reasons why.

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Open up those spreadsheets and let’s see what we find.

We’ve been dreaming of a big Kincaid season ever since the Bills spent a first-round pick on him in 2023. And last year wasn’t far off, with Kincaid finishing 10th in fantasy points per game at tight end. But we knew the ceiling wasn’t being tapped quite yet.

Perhaps 2026 is finally the Kincaid jam.

The primary stats point to Kincaid smashing, but there are all sorts of secondary indicators, too. Last year he was limited to 38% of snaps as the Bills looked to manage his knee issues. This year, Kincaid’s up to 69% snaps. He’s being targeted on 23.3% of Buffalo’s passes, fourth-best among tight ends, and his targets have a catchable rate of 92.9%, tops among heavy-use TEs. Obviously being tied to Josh Allen is a good thing.

The career arc also lines up, as Kincaid’s entering his fourth season and age-27 season. That’s a common spot for a breakout year. And unlike a lot of talented tight ends, Kincaid has a legitimate chance to be the most dynamic pass-catching threat on his own team. DJ Moore is a good player, but not a superstar. And the quality of the WR room dips significantly after Moore.

If I were walking into a fresh draft starting tonight, Kincaid would be slotted as my TE5. And I don’t see much difference between the two names in front of him, Tyler Warren and George Kittle. Dealer’s choice.

While the pro-Kincaid argument is largely about career arc, we can’t make the same case for Kelce. The Kansas City veteran long ago punched his Hall of Fame ticket, and he was seen as a diminished player the last couple of years.

So it’s exciting to see Kelce get off to such a fast start in 2026. He’s averaging 14.3 yards per catch and 10.8 yards per target, and while two games are not a thick sample, those would both be career bests for Kelce. He’s fourth among tight ends in targets, and he’s fourth at the position in first-read targets. This is another case where we can tell a story about a tight end being heavily prioritized on his own offense.

Fantasy football is often a young man’s game, and I understand the desire to draft players who are on the front nines of their careers, still on the escalator. But it’s possible, perhaps even likely, that Kelce’s summer ADP was a tremendous opportunity for profit.

Washington will probably see a lot of Christian Gonzalez this week, New England’s outstanding cornerback. But don’t you dare put Washington on your fantasy bench. He’s earned the trust of everyone in Jacksonville, and he’s shown the ability to win against tough matchups before. Note the 7-98-0 line he posted against Denver’s challenging secondary last week.

The Jacksonville passing game clearly runs through Washington these days — he’s drawing a first-read target on 39.5% of passes, fourth-best among wide receivers. The three wideouts ahead of Washington in this stat are all superstars — Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Justin Jefferson. Washington is also taking half of his snaps from the slot, where the throws are quickly defined and often easier to complete. Why complicate things when you don’t have to?

It’s time to forget that Washington was a sixth-round pick coming out of Penn State three years ago; an injury late in his college career affected his draft stock. Here’s where he’s similar to St. Brown — the talented Sun God was an uber-prospect coming out of high school but injuries at USC pushed him to the fourth round. Draft capital isn’t completely meaningless in most cases, but it’s also a sunk cost. While the Jaguars continue to work on the Brian Thomas Jr. puzzle, things look solved with the emerging Washington. Enjoy the ride.

It’s become somewhat trendy to overlook McMillan these days, and I get it. Jalen Coker is a fun breakout player, and veteran TE Darren Waller is a monster in the red zone. But having talented teammates is not a detriment for McMillan. He’s still capable of paying off his summer ADP.

The first strong signal here is the fast start from QB Bryce Young. Although Young’s surely been helped by a favorable early schedule (Chicago, Atlanta), he’s also producing at a high level. All of his indexed efficiency metrics are well above league average, and his sack and interception rates have never been lower. We’ll feel better if he’s still crushing when the opponents get tougher, but maybe this is a breakthrough year.

McMillan doesn’t have a touchdown yet, though it’s hard to critique a guy sitting on a 10-176-0 line and a 17.6 YPC. But keep in mind the Panthers are trying to work on some end-zone connections. He’s collected four red-zone targets through two games, fourth-best at the position, and he’s seen two end-zone targets, one off the league best. Maybe Coker turns into one of the better No. 2 receivers in the league, but let’s not forget who the true alpha is in Carolina. It’s been a decent start for McMillan, and it should get better.

Statistics from Fantasy Points, Pro-Football Reference and Fantasy Pros were used in the research and composition of this article.

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