Best value bets for UFC 334: Ciryl Gane vs. Josh Hokit

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In sharp contrast to the last numbered event, UFC 334 in New York at Madison Square Garden features two title bouts and is loaded with good strikers and fewer one-trick grapplers. Those who do wrestle at above-average pace are generally also good strikers. So we should see plenty of matchups being decided on the feet.  

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Let’s break down some key spots on the card:

Ciryl Gane (-210) vs. Josh Hokit (+185)

(Fightnomics)

The profiles are similar, though the size and pedigree are very different for this heavyweight title bout. It’s two of the more accurate heavyweight strikers, yet ones who aren’t all about power. Though Hokit is definitely more likely to initiate takedowns, we should still see some extended exchanges on the feet. 

The key differences are size and pace. Hokit averages over twice the striking output while standing compared to Gane, however it’s largely driven by a barnburner against Curtis Blaydes and a drubbing of Derrick Lewis, That said, his strength of schedule against technical strikers is not at Gane’s level, and Hokit will be noticeably undersized at range.

Gane is carefully measured, keeps his distance and lands accurately while staying away from trouble. Hokit’s aggressive forward style leads to landing a lot of strikes, but also absorbing far more than is typical — especially at heavyweight — with a generally poor head-strike defense metric.

How Hokit’s aggression plays out will determine the outcome. Delivering as much output as he’s capable of doing would surely win rounds and possibly set up a ground finish. But Gane appears specifically suited to forcing a slower fight and making overly aggressive moves pay dearly with technical counter-striking. It’s been a fast rise for Hokit, but the model still likes the champ as the two-to-one favorite, and that assumes Gane can fight effectively in reverse with his counters.

Best bet: Gane to win

(Fightnomics)

Dober nearly always gets involved in a slobberknocker, and the numbers reveal the telltale signs: prefers to stay standing, uses a high-striking output, scores lots of knockdowns but actually gets hit more often than he lands. He might have a willing dance partner in Duncan, who exhibits some of the same tendencies but minus the power or damage absorbed. At a minimum, that makes Duncan the younger, bigger and less damaged fighter of the two, which generally translates into success in a shootout. 

Duncan can also fall back on his ground game. Dober’s takedown defense rates about average, and if Duncan commits he could sway otherwise close rounds. He’s also shown an ability to maintain or increase output in his most recent decision victories. That stamina will be necessary to hang with Dober, who invites a wild pace. Together, these advantages give a playable edge to Duncan at a price that should remain affordable. 

Best bet: Duncan to win

Stephen Thompson (-150) vs. Charles Radtke (+120)

(Fightnomics)

This will be Wonderboy’s farewell appearance, and it might have been more fitting to pair him with striker. But in this matchup, despite some decent striking metrics for Radtke, I expect he will deploy the game plan of heavy wrestling that he used in his last two wins. 

Wonderboy is no stranger to opponents wanting to close the distance, though over his career his takedown defense is still just barely above average. Should Radtke get frustrated chasing the notoriously evasive Thompson, we could see this turn into a contest of ground control, starting with fence line clinching. A glance at my Strikers vs. Grappler graph reveals they are on opposite sides of stylistic tendencies, where historically I tend to favor the wrestler.

Radtke's two knockouts suffered drop his chin rating well into the red, normally a big risk facing a rangy striking specialist. But further context reveals those came against two of the division’s best in Mike Malott and new title contender Carlos Prates. So not exactly a knock against Radtke’s durability.

Best bet: Radtke to win at plus money

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