Projecting the second College Football Playoff Rankings: How high should Notre Dame climb?
· Yahoo Sports
I’ll issue my Mea culpa right out of the gate. I was way off on my College Football Playoff projection last week. The selection committee behaved quite differently than I expected it to — though I was far from alone in that, considering everyone’s reactions to Tuesday’s rankings.
That’s the hard part. My job is to predict what a human selection committee is going to do without any data or public comments indicating what those humans prefer and prioritize in their team evaluations this year.
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Well, now we know. We know this year’s committee is very into quality wins, and it’s willing to ignore losses if the wins are good enough. This committee loves strength of schedule and strength of record metrics. In short, it loves the Southeastern Conference; its teams were ranked a combined 19 spots higher in the CFP rankings than they were in the AP poll last week.
So, here’s what I expect to see from the committee this Tuesday: Georgia will slide up to No. 1, and undefeated Utah will move up to No. 2. The committee had Alabama at No. 5 last week as its top two-loss team — one of two two-loss SEC teams ranked ahead of unbeaten UCLA — and then the Tide went and backed up that ranking by blowing out LSU. With Alabama adding a top-20 win over the Tigers to a resume that the committee already liked, I could easily see the group move the Tide up to No. 3, jumping an Indiana team that doesn’t have a top-25 win (but does have five wins over teams .500 or better).
Takeaways from College Football Week 10: Notre Dame makes a statement, Utah is locked inWeek 10 absolutely delivered, from a historic Holy War to the showdown in South Bend and everything in between.I’ve got Notre Dame up to No. 5, a six-spot jump after taking down No. 1 Miami at home. The committee told the Irish last week that they had to beat the Hurricanes to have a shot at the College Football Playoff, and Notre Dame responded. It played like a team whose back was against the wall. I considered moving the Irish ahead of Indiana because their best win is better than the Hoosiers’ best win, but I can’t stop thinking about the committee having Notre Dame so, so low last week. Six spots would still be a massive jump for the Irish.
I’m not sure what order the committee will have its next grouping of teams, but I went: No. 6 Texas, No. 7 UCLA, No. 8 Miami. It’s certainly possible that the ‘Canes don’t drop all the way down to No. 8, especially since they didn’t have star receiver Malachi Toney available to play. But considering the message this committee was sending about Notre Dame’s weak schedule a week ago, I could see Miami receiving similar treatment — with Wake Forest being the Canes’ best win and only top-25 win. And I think this committee would keep two-loss Texas above unbeaten UCLA, just like it did last week.
With so many teams picking up a third loss this weekend, it was hard to project the final at-large spots. I’m sure by the time we get to season’s end, there will be a clear pecking order and we’ll know which 9-3 teams have the best chance to make the field. But right now, as the committee evaluates incomplete resumes, I gave the edge to two-loss Tennessee (after crushing Kentucky), one-loss Texas Tech (which keeps winning, somehow), and Kentucky (falling from the No. 6 spot last week after picking up its second loss). Again, knowing the committee’s affinity for SEC resumes, I went with Kentucky over Wake Forest for the final at-large spot this week.
Boise State is not going to be ranked anywhere the Top 12 this week, but it is projected to be the highest-ranked Group of 6 champion, which would earn it the No. 12 seed in a projected field.
College Football Playoff first-round byes
1. Georgia (projected SEC champion)
2. Utah (projected Big 12 champion)
3. Alabama
4. Indiana (projected Big Ten champion)
CFP on-campus first-round hosts
5. Notre Dame
6. Texas
7. UCLA
8. Miami (projected ACC champion)
Final teams into the CFP field
9. Tennessee
10. Texas Tech
11. Kentucky
12. Boise State (projected highest-ranked Group of 6 champion)
First teams out of CFP
Wake Forest
- The selection committee had the Demon Deacons low, at No. 16 last week. Wake will have a shot at the CFP as an at-large, but it will certainly need help in the form of more SEC cannibalism.
BYU
- The Cougars have one of the best wins in the country, over Notre Dame. But two Big 12 losses means BYU likely won’t get to the conference championship game and would need some help elsewhere to get CFP consideration at 10-2.
Nicole’s top questions for the actual selection committee:
How high does Notre Dame climb after its win over the team the committee put at No. 1 a week ago? The Irish were way lower than everyone expected in the initial CFP rankings.
How does the committee view Miami’s loss to Notre Dame? What is the impact of Malachi Toney’s absence? What does this all mean for team with a relatively weak overall strength of schedule that likely won’t have any other opportunities for a top-10 win?
Does UCLA get any credit for going on the road and beating a good Minnesota team? And for handling the Gophers better than Indiana did? Or are the Bruins still behind multiple two-loss teams in the rankings?
How low do three-loss SEC teams fall? Is there still a (narrow) path for Ole Miss or LSU to sneak into the field, or are they effectively out?