Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions preview: 5 key stats
· Yahoo Sports
The Detroit Lions finally enter the divisional portion of their schedule, looking for redemption after finishing last in the NFC North with a corresponding lowly 2-4 division record last season. That included getting swept by Matt LaFleur’s Green Bay Packers on two notably big stages, in Week 1 and again on Thanksgiving. That came after Dan Campbell’s Lions squads had ripped off a 6-1 run against the Packers dating back to late 2021, bridging their dominance over the tail end of Aaron Rodgers’ tenure and the beginning of Jordan Love’s reign.
The Lions’ inconsistencies from 2025 have followed them into 2026, as they still haven’t won consecutive games since Weeks 4-5 last year. Now coming off a bye week, they’ve been equally inconsistent following the break under Campbell, posting a 2-2-1 record that includes last season’s embarrassing performance against the Vikings. They’ve averaged 41 points per game in their post-bye victories but mustered just 14.3 points per game in non-victories.
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Meanwhile, Green Bay’s early-season struggles had them getting churned into cheese curds behind a particularly leaky offensive line, but two impressive wins against the Bears and Cowboys have the Packers heating up at the wrong time for Detroit. This is the time of year when teams tinker, find solutions, and position themselves for a postseason run, separating themselves from the pack. The Lions have a real opportunity to get into the driver’s seat and prove they’re still the team that went 15-3 in the NFC North from 2022-24.
Week 7’s return to Ford Field will present the biggest litmus test yet this season for the state of the franchise. After stepping up to the occasion against the Cardinals, it’s time for the Lions to rise to the challenge of a heavyweight bout against the Packers. This week’s preview will examine five key stats and matchups Detroit needs to control to prove itself.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are sourced from NFL Pro, FTN Fantasy, Pro Football Reference, SumerSports, or Pro Football Focus.
Love Is in the Air
The Packers’ and Jordan Love’s reliance on aerial bombardment, along with the classic Packers tendency to draw defensive pass interference penalties, has been well documented as of late. And there’s a justifiable fear factor when considering how often the Lions defense has been lit up like it’s Independence Day this season.
A big component of this big-game hunting approach has been the Packers’ offseason decluttering of their wide receiver room, letting Romeo Doubs leave in free agency and trading away Dontayvion Wicks to allow for more consistent usage and development of recently extended Christian Watson and 2025 first-rounder Matthew Golden, two players adept at taking the top off defenses.
This season, Golden (42.2%, 8th) and Watson (32.6%, 21st) both rank in the NFL’s top 21 in air yards share rate. Together, they account for 74.8% of Love’s total intended air yards. Their ability to stretch the Lions’ defense downfield is a genuine threat, even with the return of Brian Branch and the development of Keith Abney II at safety.
What the Lions defense needs to be particularly careful about is getting shredded by play action when bringing defenders closer to the box and getting caught in single-high shells.
Packers receivers on deep passes (20+ air yards) off play action vs. single-high shells:
- Matthew Golden: 3 targets, 2 receptions, 86 receiving yards
- Tucker Kraft: 2 targets, 2 receptions, 76 receiving yards
Golden (2nd) and Kraft (3rd) both rank among the NFL’s top three in receiving yards on deep play-action passes against single-high defenses, with three of those four catches coming in Week 5 against the Bears.
It’s also noteworthy that Watson has two deep-ball catches for 73 receiving yards and a touchdown against single-high shells (without play action), along with another two deep-ball catches for 85 receiving yards and a touchdown off play action (against coverages other than single-high).
Lions defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard needs to calibrate his defensive game plan to account for Green Bay’s vertical passing attack, keeping two defenders deep to maintain a lid on the Packers’ offense and avoid getting burned by deep shots off play action. Doing so would go a long way toward giving Detroit a fighting chance.
Love Is Blind(side)
Building off the Packers’ deep passing attack, while Love ranks third in the league with 12 deep-pass completions and second with 453 deep passing yards, he’s been somewhat inconsistent in that department. His 35.3% completion percentage on deep passes ranks just 23rd, directly behind Deshaun Watson and Bo Nix, while seven of his completions (1st) and 279 of his deep passing yards (1st) have come in Weeks 5-6 alone.
That brings us to the two sides of the Packers’ offensive coin: Have they found their rhythm and some answers, or did they simply find success against the Bears’ and Cowboys’ defenses? Not that the Lions’ defense has been any better than those two, but Detroit might have an avenue to disrupt some of Green Bay’s recent passing success.
When comparing how opposing pass rushes attacked Jordan Love in Weeks 1-4 versus Weeks 5-6, we actually see that Love faced slightly higher quarterback pressure and sack rates while enjoying considerably more success over the last two weeks. However, that doesn’t tell the whole story.
From Weeks 1-4, the collective defenses of the Vikings, Jets, Falcons, and Buccaneers forced Love into an average time to throw of 2.15 seconds (1st, fastest), while generating pressure in an average of 1.86 seconds (3rd-fastest) and blitzing him on 40.7% of dropbacks (3rd-most). Compare that to Weeks 5-6, when Love’s average time to throw increased to 2.49 seconds (13th), his average time to pressure climbed to a more comfortable 2.24 seconds (t-14th), and the blitz rate dipped to 31.6% (19th).
Jordan Love vs. Pressure | Weeks 1-4 vs. Weeks 5-6
- Weeks 1-4: 51.3 passer rating (23rd), 40.5% completion percentage (19th), 6.4 yards/attempt (16th), -0.424 EPA/dropback (22nd), 35.1% success rate (19th), 10.8% explosive play rate (14th)
- Weeks 5-6: 97.0 passer rating (5th), 61.1% completion percentage (6th), 10.6 yards/attempt (3rd), +0.293 EPA/dropback (3rd), 61.1% success rate (3rd), 22.2% explosive play rate (3rd)
Jordan Love vs. Blitz | Weeks 1-4 vs. Weeks 5-6
- Weeks 1-4: 89.0 passer rating (21st), 53.2% completion percentage (33rd), 7.0 yards/attempt (20th), -0.236 EPA/dropback (28th), 40.3% success rate (27th), 11.3% explosive play rate (t-13th)
- Weeks 5-6: 113.5 passer rating (6th), 66.7% completion percentage (9th), 10.1 yards/attempt (5th), +0.403 EPA/dropback (3rd), 58.3% success rate (8th), 20.8% explosive play rate (2nd)
The sample size is small, but it’s undeniable that Love and the Packers’ offense have shown a night-and-day difference in their ability to handle pressure and the blitz over the last two weeks.
Some of that improvement could be attributed to a more settled offensive line, with Jordan Morgan, Laken Tomlinson, Sean Rhyan, Travis Glover, and Anthony Belton entrenched as the starters from left to right over the last three weeks, providing additional competence and stability after Green Bay shuffled through several combinations in Weeks 1-3. Even then, the Packers could look to start Aaron Banks, who has been practicing this week, at left guard and Kevin Zeitler, who was active last week, at right guard.
It’s all up in the air, but what’s not in question is that Love has looked more comfortable, had more time to operate, and shredded the Cowboys’ and Bears’ defenses over the last two weeks.
Luckily for Detroit, that level of production may not be sustainable, and Love has historically struggled against pressure. The key to disrupting Green Bay’s dangerous aerial attack could be the Lions’ pass-rushing wrecking crew, led by Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill, getting home quickly and consistently with just four rushers and selectively deployed blitzes (just as I wrote in the Week 4 Panthers preview). Applying pressure early could rattle Love’s cage, speed up his internal clock, and prevent the Packers from operating their offense on schedule.
That must be paired with Sheppard effectively marrying the pass rush and coverage, forcing Love to hold the football and process for at least two seconds to give Detroit’s pass rushers time to get home and disrupt the play.
The Lions’ front four has an opportunity to change the course of this game, and potentially their season. Disrupting the Packers’ passing attack would be another step toward proving themselves.
Make Love make rushed mistakes.
BB’s Back, Tell A Friend
The Lions get their tone-setting, glass-eating shadow force back in Brian Branch, as he makes his season debut following his December Achilles tear. He’s a player who thrives on forcing opponents into mistakes.
While Branch will justifiably improve the run defense, it’s his ability to be a little hellion, feeling rebellious and giving the Lions a counterpunch in their leaky, reeling pass defense, even as a reduced version of himself, that most intrigues me about this matchup.
Per Next Gen Stats, Branch has recorded a 21.7% ball-hawk rate since entering the league in 2023 (sixth-highest among qualifying defenders, minimum 100 targets). He’s made a play on the ball, either with a pass defensed or an interception, on 38 of his 175 career targets faced.
With the Lions entering a stretch of NFC North matchups, it’s worth noting that Branch has recorded 13 passes defensed or interceptions on 66 targets against divisional opponents, good for a 19.6% ball-hawk rate across 17 career games. Against the Packers specifically, he’s recorded four passes defensed or interceptions on 19 targets (21.1%).
Branch could get into Love’s head and provide the answer Detroit needs against Tucker Kraft, particularly given the Lions’ fair share of struggles defending tight ends. He’s a chaos-creating chameleon who can be deployed all over the defensive backfield, giving Kelvin Sheppard another versatile weapon to disrupt Green Bay’s passing attack.
Z is For Zoro
A week after the Lions’ embarrassing TNF loss at the hands of the Bills, the Packers were pantsed by the Falcons. In that game, Bijan Robinson carried the ball 10 times for 70 rushing yards, a touchdown, and four rushing first downs on outside-zone runs alone. Even though the Packers’ defense has shown some surprising bite in its first year under Jonathan Gannon, even without Micah Parsons, they’ve been susceptible on the ground this season, particularly against outside-zone concepts, allowing 204 rushing yards on 42 attempts (4.9 yards per rush, 25th).
The Packers’ defense actually ranks 10th against outside-zone runs in both success rate allowed (35.7%) and yards before contact per rush (1.5). However, they’re 25th in EPA per rush allowed while surrendering a 14.3% explosive run rate (21st) and 3.3 yards after contact per rush (31st), leaving plenty of room for Jahmyr Gibbs to make the first defender miss and leave them in the dust. This is particularly notable with the Packers missing not only key second-level defender Edgerrin Cooper but also now Zaire Franklin, leaving them without two linebackers capable of flowing sideline to sideline through zone-blocking traffic and meeting runners in cutback lanes.
The Lions’ offense, and Gibbs in particular (34.2% success rate), found themselves running their heads into a wall with outside zone last year. I had my concerns about its usage this season, preferring more gap-scheme-oriented runs, but Detroit’s offense has been dominant, ranking top five in most outside-zone metrics while relying on it for 40.0% of all runs (3rd). As the bell cow, Gibbs himself has been feasting on it.
On outside-zone runs this season, Gibbs is averaging 5.7 yards per rush (4th), a 51.1% success rate (4th), a 44.4% avoided tackle rate (2nd), and a 22.2% explosive run rate (2nd). Gibbs has a good feel for stretching defenses horizontally on outside zone right now, thanks to improved blocking and play design, then finding an alley to cut upfield or simply using his speed to bounce it outside.
FTN Fantasy has a fascinating metric called Juke Rate, which measures how often a runner executes a successful juke move. Gibbs has an 11.1% juke rate on outside-zone runs, with the next-closest running back at just 8.8%. Only three running backs have even exceeded a 3.3% juke rate on outside-zone runs this season.
Gibbs has found his groove running outside zone, and his brilliance will be essential to the Lions controlling the football, keeping Love on the sideline, and finding a rhythm that establishes Detroit as the most dominant unit on the field Sunday to lead them to victory.
Loose Gannon
The Lions will need to control the clock by dominating the ground game, as they’ll face a tough task against Jonathan Gannon’s pass defense, led by the spine of their defense in arguably the best safety trio in football: Xavier McKinney, Evan Williams, and nickel Javon Bullard.
The Lions’ passing attack has feasted throughout the Dan Campbell era, particularly this season, with Jared Goff operating like a surgeon in three key aspects of the passing game: using play action (+0.37 EPA/dropback, 2nd this season), intermediate passing (+0.96 EPA/dropback, 1st), and throwing after holding the ball for 2.5 or more seconds (+0.27 EPA/dropback, 1st). This is where Chef Goff has carved up defenses.
Unfortunately, he might need to check the latest FDA recall list before preparing Sunday’s recipe, because those are also the areas where the Packers’ defense has thrived.
Green Bay, from an EPA/dropback standpoint, ranks ninth against play-action passes (-0.09), first against intermediate throws (-0.33), and seventh when opposing quarterbacks hold the ball for 2.5 or more seconds (-0.23).
It’ll be strength against strength in this matchup, and whoever comes out on top could go a long way toward controlling the game. It’ll be intriguing to see whether the Lions adjust their passing approach to attack Green Bay’s cornerbacks and linebackers rather than continually challenging the strengths of Gannon’s defense.