Cubs BCB After Dark: Which free agent pitcher is the best fit?
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Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma have an article up in The Athletic about some free agent pitching targets for the Cubs over the winter. (sub. req.) Tonight’s question is which one do you think would be the best fit for the Cubs?
OK, I’m cheating a little bit. The first name that Mooney and Sharma mention is Tarik Skubal, and if I put him in the poll he’d probably get at least 90 percent of the vote. But as Mooney and Sharma mention, signing Skubal would force owner Tom Ricketts to go way outside of his comfort zone as far as it comes to signing free agents. I’m not saying that there is no chance the Cubs sign Skubal. I do think there’s a chance that Ricketts and Hoyer decide to roll the dice on Skubal. But I don’t think it’s a big chance. Small chance. Really small chance. But I am saying there’s a chance. But not enough of a chance to include him here.
The other three starting pitchers mentioned by the pair are much more likely options for the Cubs. The three of them are:
Right-hander Michael King: King isn’t technically a free agent yet, but he has an opt-out clause that everyone is expecting him to exercise. As Mooney and Sharma note, the Cubs were interested in King last year, but didn’t want to match the Padres’ offer. For one, it would have cost the Cubs a draft pick as he had received a qualifying offer. Second, the deal for three years and $75 million with two opt outs meant that the Cubs would have been taking on all the risk and potentially getting only one year out of King.
But King had a good year in 2026, including shutting the Cubs down in the postseason, which you probably remember. The 31-year-old King went 12-10 with a strong 3.21 ERA over 185 innings this past season. He also kept the ball on the ground, which is good with the Cubs infield. The one warning sign is that King’s strikeout rate this past year dropped to a career-low 21 pecent in 2026.
Right-hander Freddy Peralta: The Cubs have been linked to Peralta for a while, mostly because of the long history between him and manager Craig Counsell in Milwaukee. With free agency approaching, the Brewers dealt Peralta to the Mets last winter and until the trade deadline in August, he was pretty freaking bad in Queens with a 4.99 ERA. Some of that was the Mets poor defense. Some of that was just Peralta being bad.
But Peralta was traded to the Rays at the deadline and after a disastrous start in Colorado when he got rocked for seven runs, Perlata was mostly pretty good for the Rays. He seemed to have rediscovered his old form from Milwaukee. In ten regular season starts with the Rays, Peralta had a 3.25 ERA. Then, of course, he dominated in the playoffs and was just named the American League Championship Series MVP last night after two terrific games against Cleveland. As Mooney and Sharma point out, Peralta’s velocity took a big step up during the playoffs, potentially indicating that his problems with the Mets are behind him.
The one potential yellow flag to Peralta’s time with Tampa Bay is that, like King, his strikeout rate dropped, striking out just 19.7 percent of batters. On the other hand, his walk rate dropped too.
Right-hander Sonny Gray: At 36, Gray is easily the oldest of the three pitchers we’re looking at tonight. But he really isn’t slowing down much at all. Gray had one of the best seasons of his career in 2026 and he led the league with 18 wins. Gray also had a 2.72 ERA, which was his lowest since his abbreviated rookie season in 2013.
Gray is also a strong ground ball pitcher, getting 46 percent ground balls last season and 49.4 percent over the course of his career. Gray also doesn’t walk batters, which allowed him to go deeper into games even as he ages. In 22 of his 29 starts last year, Gray went at least six innings. In six starts, he went seven innings or more.
The other advantage with Gray is that with his age, he’d probably be willing to settle for a much shorter contract of one or two years. That would mean a lot less risk if things go bad.
Mooney and Sharma mention the players and coaches on the Cubs with Vanderbilt connections, that might entice the Commodore alum. But I also wanted to mention that the Cubs drafted Gray out of high school in 2008 in the 27th round. Admittedly, Gray was a strong commit to Vandy and that draft pick was a kind of “Hey, if you change your mind. . .” pick, but the point is that the Cubs interest in Gray goes all the way back to the Jim Hendry era.
So which of these three pitchers would be the best fit for the Cubs in 2027?
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