Ranking Mets starting rotation candidates for 2027 season
· Yahoo Sports
WASHINGTON — The Mets are in an enviable spot when it comes to their starting rotation heading into next season.
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“Young pitching is probably the most valued commodity in the game,” manager Andy Green said recently. “Everybody’s hungry to have that.”
Between Nolan McLean, Christian Scott, Zac Thornton and Jonah Tong, the Mets have the makings of a young core. All four of those starters are homegrown, a testament to the Mets’ ability to draft and develop talented pitching prospects. They’ve all shown this season, to varying degrees, that they’re capable of having success at the big-league level as well.
Put those four starters’ numbers together and they produced a combined 3.45 ERA in 2026. Stack that up against every other MLB team over this entire season and that would rank third in baseball behind the Yankees and Dodgers.
While McLean and Scott are locks for next year’s rotation, Thornton and Tong aren’t necessarily guaranteed a spot just yet. The Mets have aging veterans under contract — Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga — and they’re poised to upgrade to their starting staff via trade and free agency this winter. Barring injuries, this could turn out to be a legitimate surplus for New York entering next season.
Here are some notes on each of those six in-house candidates for next year’s rotation and how they performed this season. Once the offseason begins, we’ll circle back to this topic and examine some of the top targets the Mets should pursue outside of the organization.
Nolan McLean, RHP
Nolan McLean posted a 3.16 ERA over 31 starts this season.AP2026 stats: 12-10, 3.16 ERA, 31 GS, 179 2/3 IP, 194 K, 1.17 WHIP, .214 BAA
McLean’s first full season in the big leagues was terrific. He was without question the best rookie starting pitcher in Major League Baseball and he’ll receive some well-deserved Rookie of the Year consideration in the National League.
What defined McLean’s season was how he bounced back from a shaky May. McLean gave up 13 earned runs in a two-start span to raise his ERA on the year up to 4.40 on May 25. He was dominant from that point on other than a blip or two along the way. From his next start on May 31 through Saturday, McLean had the 10th-best ERA of any qualified starter in baseball (2.51).
McLean said after his final start of the year in Texas this past week that he was most proud of the way he made every start this year. The next step, to Green, is for McLean to refine his strike-throwing ability. That way, he can get to two-strike counts faster and more consistently to let his stuff take care of the rest from there. When he’s ahead in the count and hitting his spots, he can be unstoppable.
The Mets may acquire a proven ace from outside of the organization this winter, but if McLean takes another step forward in his development, he could still end up as the best pitcher on the Mets in 2027.
Christian Scott, RHP
Christian Scott posted a 3.85 ERA in 23 starts this season.AP2026 stats: 4-5, 3.85 ERA, 23 GS, 110 IP, 134 K, 1.27 WHIP, .224 BAA
Scott spoke recently about how he feels like he became more of a pitcher this year rather than a thrower in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. That’s because he took steps forward in rounding out his repertoire, gaining confidence with pitches like his changeup and cutter.
Looking at his metrics, Scott’s ability to induce weak contact stands out the most. His strikeout rate is up almost 10 percent compared to where it sat in 2024 during his first taste of big-league action before he needed surgery. That’s another good sign.
As Scott continues to refine his arsenal and attack hitters more consistently, cutting down on his walks, he’ll be able to pitch deeper into games. A chance to focus on pitching and getting better rather than rehabbing this offseason is valuable for the right-hander as well.
“He’s a relentless competitor and someone we have a ton of faith in going forward,” Green said. “So I think we feel really good about the body of work this year and the trend line for him was really positive.”
Zac Thornton, LHP
Zac Thornton posted a 3.42 ERA ERA over 15 starts this season.AP2026 stats: 5-6, 3.42 ERA, 15 GS, 84 1/3 IP, 63 K, 1.14 WHIP, .248 BAA
Thornton, who started this season in Double-A Binghamton, accomplished both of his two biggest goals this year. He wanted to stay healthy to make every start and he wanted to make his big-league debut. The left-hander ended up pitching 15 times in a Mets uniform, turning quite a few heads in the process.
Then again, those who know Thornton and followed his ascension through New York’s farm system aren’t surprised by what they saw from the southpaw this summer. He lived up to his reputation with the way he filled up the strike zone at an elite rate, challenging hitters no matter who he’s facing.
The concern with Thornton is the way opposing hitters were able to put the ball in play against him and do so with authority. Thornton has one of the lowest whiff rates in baseball. He struggled with limiting hard contact and avoiding barrels.
That’s where adding strength and velocity comes into play. If Thornton can sit a few ticks higher on the radar gun with his fastball consistently, it’ll make the rest of his pitch mix more effective by speeding hitters up. He’s not going to overpower opposing lineups, but that’s the best way he can sprinkle more swing and miss into his game.
Keep in mind that Thornton has minor-league options. Green singled out the importance of having depth starters heading into next year, indicating there’s a real chance Thornton will start the year in Triple-A or spend time there in 2027. If he keeps throwing strikes, gets stronger and continues to evolve, he’d be in a position to win a job next spring.
Jonah Tong, RHP
Jonah Tong posted a 3.82 ERA over seven games (four starts) this season.AP2026 stats: 2-2, 3.82 ERA, 7 G (4 GS), 30 2/3 IP, 34 K, 1.24 WHIP, .211 BAA
This summer didn’t go according to plan for Tong. The top pitching prospect was relegated to Triple-A for the majority of this season where he struggled, pitching to a 4.54 ERA in Syracuse.
As frustrating as this season has been for Tong — he worked through changes to his mechanics and pitch mix that didn’t lead to positive results — the 23-year-old has insisted that he’s better for it. He’s embraced the fact that development isn’t linear, turning low points into learning lessons that will help him have success moving forward in his career.
The way he finished out this season backs that up, as much as he’ll need to prove himself all over again next spring. Tong pitched well over his final month-plus in Triple-A before holding his own at the big-league level in September.
In his final start of the year, on Saturday in DC, Tong set a career-high with nine strikeouts over five innings of one-run ball. Tong had 19 whiffs in that start, showing how effective he can be when he establishes his heater at the top of the zone and plays off it with his changeup (mixing in the cutter and curveball as well).
When it comes to 2027, Tong is in the same boat as Thornton. He can be sent back down to Triple-A. That in mind, the message from Green and the Mets is simple.
“His job is to make it so freaking obvious to us,” Green said, “that he deserves to be here that we can’t make those type of decisions when he competes in spring training. So he has a full understanding of what that landscape looks like, a full understanding of what makes sense for us and the resolve to go prove that he belongs here.”
Sean Manaea, LHP
Sean Manaea has posted a 4.67 ERA over 32 games (18 starts) this season, entering play on Sunday.AP2026 stats: 6-7, 4.67 ERA, 32 G (18 GS), 144 2/3 IP, 141 K, 1.30 WHIP, .261 BAA
Manaea’s season began in the bullpen. His velocity in spring training was such a glaring issue and concern, it was hard to envision him pitching meaningful innings for the Mets this year.
Give Manaea credit for the way he was able to change that narrative a few months later. There was a two-plus month stretch over this summer where the left-hander was as reliable as any other Mets starter. He earned his spot back in the rotation, giving his team chances to win nearly every turn through.
With the way Manaea has pitched down the stretch, however, he’ll enter this offseason as an expensive question mark for next year. The veteran posted a 4.94 ERA in August and he has a 5.32 ERA so far in September (Manaea will start for the Mets in Game 162 on Sunday). Getting through six innings has been his kryptonite.
Velocity is also key for Manaea. When he’s living in the mid-90s, the rest of his stuff plays better. Whether he can raise his velo back up for his age-35 season next year remains to be seen, although Green made sure to point out that Chris Sale, another veteran lefty with a low slot, has been able to age gracefully in Atlanta.
Manaea is under contract for one more season and is owed the rest of his three-year, $75 million contract. The Mets will try to get him back to his 2024 form, the type of starter they can rely on, but as Green said last week, “nothing’s going to be handed to him.” He needs to earn it, regardless of how much he’s making.
Kodai Senga, RHP
Kodai Senga has posted a 7.34 ERA over 31 games (8 starts) this season, entering play on Sunday.AP2026 stats: 0-9, 7.34 ERA, 31 G (8 GS), 61 1/3 IP, 75 K, 1.65 WHIP, .253 BAA
Kodai Senga has made it abundantly clear that his preference is to be a starting pitcher. That’s the main reason why he’s listed here, although all signs are presently pointing toward Senga sticking in the bullpen after the success he’s had in a high-leverage role since the trade deadline.
Early on this year, Senga was a liability as a starter. He had a 9.00 ERA over his first five starts before a back injury kept him out for over a month. The right-hander didn’t start pitching effectively until he settled in as a reliever, leaning on his high-90s fastball and nasty forkball in short spurts.
Depending on how this offseason goes for the Mets, the organization could give Senga one more shot in a starter’s role. He’s three years removed now from his dynamic rookie season, though. Is it even worth testing that out when he’s shown the organization that he can dominate in this new role?
That decision for Senga — who is also entering the final year of his contract with New York — hasn’t been made yet.
“We will make determinations based on what we feel is best for the team and where he fits best,” Green said. “That’s impossible to answer at this moment. We’ve gotten a good look at him in this role, and he’s done a lot of really good things, and we’re excited about the possibility of that.”
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