Three teams the Phillies match up with at the deadline
· Yahoo Sports
The trade deadline is near and the Phillies have work to do. There are multiple holes that can, and should, be filled by the time to clock ticks to 00:00 on August 3rd, which means there needs to be a scouring of rosters around the game. Several problems are present though, the most glaring is – who are the sellers?
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The presence of the third wild card has made this question harder to define than at the deadlines we grew up with. Teams might feel like they’re still in it, thus requiring them to either hold serve or actually acquire pieces to go for a shot at getting into the playoffs and seeing what havoc they can cause. It leads to a shortfall of teams that have accepted their fate and put themselves on the market as sellers with players to move. However, there are some clear teams that have fallen out of contention and have the players that match up with what the Phillies are looking to do.
We can name the needs the Phillies have this trade deadline with relative ease:
- a fifth starter to give them decent starts each time he toes the rubber
- at least one (preferably two) reliever to add to the bullpen, that reliever being someone that can be trusted in the eighth inning
- a bat, preferably right handed, that can help get on base at a reasonable rate that would help raise the team’s current .303 OBP as a team
The tricky part to all of this is payroll. The team, according to Roster Resource, currently sits at a smidge over $321 million in payroll counting towards the luxury tax penalties. Since they have cleared the third threshold of that tax, we can conservatively think that every dollar added to the payroll at this point would be double in terms of the luxury tax they would have to pay at the end of the season. While putting the best team on the field should be the goal of the team, we’d be delusional if if didn’t figure the money part into the trade deadline into the equation. So, if the team is going to be acquiring a player, they had better be getting some bang for their buck.
However, there are still some teams that they can dance with at the deadline that can help them. Here are three.
Colorado Rockies (Fangraphs playoff odds: 0.0%)
The Rockies stink, yet have a direction for the first time in seemingly years. They have accepted they are bad and will move players to finally try and be good in the future. Considering how their past few trade deadlines have gone, that is a radical change for them. Even with how bad they have been, there are several pieces that could fit what the team is looking for.
The most desirable piece the Rockies have is Hunter Goodman, their All-Star catcher who is currently third in the majors with 31 home runs. He would add the much needed power to the lineup that would come from the right side. He’s running a walk rate below 10%, not exactly the remedy to the problem the Phillies have, but that could be overlooked since he hits the ball really hard and really far. Then there is the fact that Goodman is a catcher, which might sound like an issue with a team that has J.T. Realmuto ensconced at the position, but Goodman has played in the outfield before. That move to the outfield full time might not be easy on the defensive eyes, but since when have the Phillies worried about team defense?
The cost of acquiring Goodman would be exorbitant, possibly too high for what the Phillies would be comfortable with doing. It would mean putting Gage Wood on the table at the bare minimum, plus several more names that occupy whatever top ten list you wish to adhere to. He might be exactly what the team needs, but it’s probably pie in the sky thinking.
After Goodman, the team could look at the starters they have. Since the spot in the rotation the Phillies are looking to fill is pretty specific, several players could fit the bill. Michael Lorenzen and Tomoyuki Sugano could at least act like adults in the fifth starter’s spot for the Phillies, not the sexiest names on the planet, but also at least capable of giving them decent outings each time they toe the rubber. Looking into the bullpen, Antonio Senzatela has been much better this season since moving there full time, seeing jumps in all of his peripherals in addition to his fastball velocity. Juan Mejia throws really, really hard, averaging 97 mph with his fastball, but with nary a semblance of where it is actually going (see: 11.2 BB%). Victor Vodnik has always had the velocity the team likes from their bullpen pieces, but if you thought Mejia didn’t know where the strikezone was, Vodnik might be worse. If they wanted to add someone to the outfield mix, someone like Brenton Doyle, though maybe a year or two too late, would fit the bill as a right handed option, but would he be better than what Derek Hill is currently providing? Old friend Mickey Moniak has 16 home runs, but his walk rate is under 6%. He’s also left handed.
There are some decent pieces that might give the Phillies some depth pieces that they could control beyond this season, but as far as needle moving trades, outside of Goodman and maybe Senzatela, there isn’t much that would be added to the team’s potential playoff roster. They match up decently and wouldn’t have to part with much in terms of high level prospects (again, outside of Goodman), so perhaps there is a match to be made.
Kansas City Royals (Fangraphs playoff odds: 0.3%)
Another team that has fallen into the doldrums this year is the Royals. When the season began, they were at least mildly interesting as a potential AL Central pick were they able to continue with their plan of solid rotation, Bobby Witt and lots of hope to win the division. Unfortunately for them, if something could go wrong for them, it has. Witt has been an MVP level player, but everyone else has fallen apart. They still have him to build around, as well as some offensive pieces like Jac Caglianone and Vinnie Pasquantino, but the rest of the roster has struggled or gotten hurt. They are another team that has a few things that could help the Phillies.
Naturally, the easiest player to think of is Lane Thomas. Signed to a one-year deal this offseason, Thomas has hit to a not spectacular, but not horrible .240/.337/.409 line for the season. He would be an option the team could look at to help in the outfield as part of a platoon with someone in right field, whether that someone is Gabriel Rincones, Jr. or if they simply say that he is the starter and move forward from there. Is that a needle mover for the team as far as boosting the outfield as is? Maybe not, but it would be more of a raising the floor than anything else.
On the pitching side, they might be a team that is able to act on Michael Wacha as a starting pitcher. It would fall into the “solid, but not spectacular” type of move that makes those fifth starter issues disappear. Get into a playoff series that require four starters and there is a real conversation that, were they able to acquire Wacha, he would be a better option to start that game over Aaron Nola. He’d also have team control through 2027 and 2028, the latter of which would come in the form of a team option, so this wouldn’t just be a move concerned about this season alone. It would also be setting up the rotation for the next season as well. Is that something the team would want to do, locking in another spot with little flexibility?
For relievers, there are a few that should draw interest. Daniel Lynch is a power left handed reliever having a solid season for the Royals. He handles left handed hitters with ease and has shown an effectiveness against right handers as well, even if they have hit him a bit better. One thing to note is that he keeps the ball on the ground to the tune of a groundball rate at nearly 51%. With the infield defense the way it is right now, would he still be as effective?
And before you ask, no. Matt Strahm is not an option, not with an ERA that begins with a 7 and a groundball rate under 30%.
Baltimore Orioles (Fangraphs playoff odds: 24.6%)
At first blush, there doesn’t seem to be a match between the two teams. Admittedly, there can be a bit of a stretch to see the link between the two.
Technically, with playoff odds around 25% and the American League being quite bad this season, Baltimore could talk itself into actually pushing forward with what they have. They have played better since the break and have some players that could continue to improve as the clock ticks toward the deadline. They only sit three games out of the last wild card spot and remain in striking distance.
Yet if they determine that they aren’t going to make it and indeed start to trade away a few pieces, there are some that could be attractive to the Phillies.
Namely, Taylor Ward.
Having been linked to the Phillies for at least two seasons now, the disappointing season the Orioles are having might finally be the time that a deal is actually consummated. Ward has played in each game on the season for Baltimore and has given them a 120 wRC+ for their troubles. He’s also an outfielder on an expiring contract and could bring them back something fetching in return. Outfielders are things that Baltimore has a few of in reserve, but moving Ward would be a signal that they didn’t think they could overcome the injuries they’re having to make those playoffs.
If Ward was someone they did not want to move, someone like Tyler O’Neill could possibly be pried loose. He’s in a platoon right now with Dylan Beavers and has generally disappointed in his tenure there, but isn’t far removed from a season (2024) in which he had 31 home runs. Were the Orioles willing to pay down some of his remaining deal (he is still under contract for 2027 at $16.5 million, a roll of the dice could be in play to see if he can regain some of his noted power from a few years ago.
For pitching, it’s unlikely any of the starters Baltimore has would be on the table, so focusing on what relievers they have could be in order. Andrew Kittredge is one that they could have interest in as a late inning option. He’s been solid for them this year, running an ERA around 3.5 for most of the season. He’s not going to blow hitters away, but he still induces quite a bit of chase with his stuff and keeps the ball on the ground.
These are but three teams that the Phillies might be able to make a deal with. There are a few others, some of which might be able to actually see a deal through. We’ll have to wait and see what that deadline finally brings.