SACCI Trade Activity Index remains subdued in June
· The South African
The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) Trade Activity Index (TAI) remained subdued in June.
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The TAI slipped to a seasonally adjusted value of 36 in June from 37 in May, 46 in April and 51 in March.
The graph is sourced from SACCISurprisingly, respondents are more upbeat about prospects. The Trade Expectations Index rose to 68 in June from 62 in May and 49 in April.
SACCI said the gap between present and expected trade conditions remains wide but the much lower crude oil and pump prices spurred positive expectations.
However, renewed conflict between the US and Iran in July may temper these expectations somewhat going forward.
June components
SACCI said inventories, backlog on orders and input prices (turned positive in June. All the other components of trade declined marginally since May and stabilised in June 2026.
“The lower sales volumes and new orders for May and June indicate the real effect of the rising fuel prices and their effect on spending patterns in the economy,” SACCI said.
In particular, SACCI noted that the current weaker trade conditions led respondents to employ less staff. Nevertheless, 31% of respondents still hired staff in June 2026.
“Given expected improved trade conditions in the next six months, respondents intend to increase employment with the expected index increasing to 57 in June 2026 from 40 in April,” SACCI added.
Other indicators
South African businesses improved in the second quarter despite the disruptions caused by the Middle East war. This is reflected in the two Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI).
Readings above 50.0 signal an improvement in business conditions on the previous month, while readings below 50.0 show a deterioration.
The BER manufacturing PMI slipped to 47.3 in June from 50.8 in May and 52.6 in April.
The S&P Global private sector PMI rose to 50.5 in June from 49.6 in May and 51.6 in April.
The South African PayInc Economic Index (PEI) eased in June due to higher inflation.
A total of 186.8 million transactions were processed through PayInc during June. This is 11.6% more than a year ago.
The nominal value of electronic transactions increased from R1.369 trillion in May to R1.427 trillion in June.