England vs France Goal Scorer Picks: Mbappe Opens Scoring
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England and France will go all out to entertain fans in the match for third place in Miami this afternoon.
I have picked out three England vs. France goal scorer picks for you, all available on Kalshi, one of our leading prediction market apps.
Here are my England vs. France predictions and World Cup picks as two heavyweight nations face off for a podium place at Hard Rock Stadium on Saturday, July 18.
England vs France goal scorer picks
PlayerProbabilityAmerican
Odds Kylian Mbappe22%+355 Declan Rice7%+1330 Desire Doue26%+400
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0–100%), representing the market's estimated probability of an event occurring.
My England vs France goal scorer predictions
Kylian Mbappe 1st goal scorer
Kalshi probability: 22%
Kylian Mbappe is one of the first-choice players I expect to be in France's starting lineup. The reason is that he is chasing the Golden Boot and will be highly motivated to get on the scoresheet in what is largely a meaningless match.
Mbappe and Argentina’s Lionel Messi are tied with eight goals each. Messi is ahead of Mbappe in the Golden Boot race by virtue of having more assists (four vs. three).
Mbappe therefore needs to score (or supply two assists) to move into top spot ahead of Messi’s World Cup final appearance on Sunday.
Mbappe has been the first goal scorer in five of France’s seven fixtures so far. On the basis of that stat alone, the chances of him hitting the net first here appear grossly underrated.
Declan Rice goal scorer
Kalshi probability: 7%
Declan Rice is one of the few England players listed in the goal scorer markets that stands a reasonable chance of starting the match.
Managers traditionally field squad players in the game for third place as a thank you for the supporting role they have played through the tournament.
England’s midfield options are limited, however. Jordan Henderson is ruled out by injury, meaning there are only three or four players competing for two or three positions. As a result, the chances of first-choice midfielders starting are bigger than would normally be the case.
Rice scored five times in 49 Premier League and Champions League appearances for Arsenal in 2025-26 and has found the net four times in 21 England games over the past two seasons. Both stats make him a value play.
Desire Doue goal scorer
Kalshi probability: 20%
Desire Doue was unlucky to miss out on a place in France’s starting lineup for their semi-final against Spain. Manager Didier Deschamps may seek to appease the PSG winger by picking him from the start.
Doue has had a good tournament but found himself in competition with club-mate Bradley Barcola for the left-wing starting berth. As a result, the 2026 World Cup has been a stop-start affair for him.
Twenty-one-year-old Doue has scored three times in his last 10 France appearances. This season, he netted 12 goals for PSG in the French Ligue 1 and the Champions League at a rate of 1 goal every 186 minutes.
Those stats make clear that he stands a better chance of scoring than the market’s 20% probability rating suggests.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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