NFL offseason power rankings: No. 22 Tampa Bay Buccaneers try to shake off a brutal finish to last season

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Other NFL team previews: 32. Dolphins | 31. Jets | 30. Cardinals | 29. Browns | 28. Titans | 27. Raiders | 26. Falcons | 25. Giants | 24. Saints | 23. Panthers | 22. Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers looked pretty good halfway through last season.

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The Buccaneers had some key injuries early on but thanks to some thrilling, close wins, they were on track to overcome them and take off over the second half. They were the rare team to beat the Seahawks, and did so in Seattle. Tampa Bay also won at Houston and beat the 49ers by 11 points. After beating the Saints 23-3 they went into their Week 9 bye at 6-2 with a two-game lead in the division. And they were getting some impact players back from injury (though other injuries were coming, which happens in the NFL).

That's what made the second half of the season so perplexing. The Buccaneers were supposed to run away with the division. They instead fell apart.

Tampa Bay's collapse was as bad as any in recent memory. The Buccaneers lost seven of their first eight games after the bye. The low point came on a Thursday night against the Atlanta Falcons when Tampa Bay blew a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter. Atlanta had a third-and-28 and then fourth-and-14 late in the game and the Bucs couldn't get a stop to win the game. Tampa Bay beat Carolina in the regular-season finale but due to a three-team tiebreaker, the Panthers won the division at 8-9.

The flop was so bad that there was speculation Mike Evans, one of the greatest and most popular players in franchise history, left in free agency for the 49ers because of head coach Todd Bowles, who was retained despite Tampa Bay blowing one of the worst divisions in NFL history. General manager Jason Licht said that had "zero to do with" Evans leaving.

"I feel pretty strongly that — I've seen that theory — but that's not it," Licht said, via ESPN's Jenna Laine.

Even if Evans leaving had nothing to do with dissatisfaction with Bowles, that it needed to be addressed speaks to the complete failure of Bowles and the Buccaneers last season. Bowles should have one of the hottest seats in the NFL this season.

There is still plenty of blue-chip talent on the roster. The offensive line has elite players. Receivers Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin have played at a high level, running back Bucky Irving had a great rookie season (but now has concerning injury questions), Vita Vea is a stalwart in the middle of the defensive line and Antoine Winfield Jr. is one of the best safeties in the NFL. Baker Mayfield played at a Pro Bowl level in 2024, though he was a major reason for the 2025 crash.

If we could trust the Buccaneers to play to their talent level, they would rank higher on this list. They play in the NFC South, which in 2025 became one of five divisions in NFL history to send a losing team to the playoffs. They have the type of team that should win the division by multiple games, and be a potential problem in the playoffs.

But after how last season ended, it's hard to count on the Buccaneers taking advantage of the talent they have on hand.

As Baker Mayfield goes, so go the fortunes of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. (Photo by David Jensen/Getty Images)David Jensen via Getty Images

The Buccaneers said goodbye to two franchise icons. Receiver Mike Evans left in free agency to San Francisco and linebacker Lavonte David retired. Even though Evans dealt with injuries last season, he and David were still producing at a high level. Alex Anzalone was signed to help replace David, and defensive lineman A'Shawn Robinson and running back Kenneth Gainwell were the other big-ticket free-agent additions. The Buccaneers had a big loss when cornerback Jamel Dean signed a three-year, $36.75 million deal with the Steelers. Tampa Bay didn't add anyone to help replace him.

The Buccaneers were fortunate in the draft when edge defender Rueben Bain Jr. tumbled all the way to them at No. 15. That was a perfect matchup of value and need and an easy pick. It was a ho-hum offseason in Tampa, but the Bain pick could end up making it a good one.

Grade: C+

Baker Mayfield wasn't the only reason the Buccaneers went 2-7 in the second half of the season. It was a team-wide effort. But Mayfield's play was much worse in the second half.

The offense as a whole was a mess, which is a reason the Buccaneers fired coordinator Josh Grizzard and replaced him with Zac Robinson. That might help. But Mayfield, who has had his share of ups and downs through his career, now has to prove that his 2024 career year was closer to his true level. Various injuries, most notably a left shoulder injury, likely affected Mayfield's play last season. As did the lack of continuity around him due to teammates' injuries through the season. Whatever the reason, the Buccaneers can't afford to have Mayfield play like he did in the second half of last season.

From Yahoo's Ben Fawkes: "The Bucs are still the betting favorite (+175) to win the NFC South and own the highest win total (8.5) in the division, but it certainly feels as though the division has tightened from a talent level across the four teams. Tampa Bay was the NFL's worst team against the spread last season (5-12 ATS), including a putrid 2-8 ATS as a favorite. The Bucs are favored in nine games, but only four by more than a field goal. How much first-round pick Rueben Bain Jr. can improve Tampa Bay's pass rush, could be the key to another playoff appearance."

From Yahoo's Scott Pianowski: "Emeka Egbuka had a fast start and a sluggish finish as a rookie last year, though a hamstring injury dogged him down the stretch. But circle him as a possible breakout player this season. Mike Evans is gone and Chris Godwin Jr. is now 30 — it makes sense for Tampa Bay to center its passing game around Egbuka. The current Egbuka ADP is a gift — you'll find him just outside the top 50 in early Yahoo drafts.

The Buccaneers didn't have enough pass rush juice from the edge last season, which was a big factor in their defense being below average. YaYa Diaby had a nice season off the edge with seven sacks but no other edge rusher had more than three. Haason Reddick was brought in last season to help off the edge; he had just 2.5 sacks. This offseason Tampa Bay signed Al-Quadin Muhammad, who had 11 sacks with the Lions to help out. But Muhammad had just 15 sacks in his previous seven NFL seasons.

That's why Rueben Bain Jr. falling to the Buccaneers was so fortuitous. Bain started the draft process as a potential top five pick, but fell due to arm length that is shorter than usual for a pass rusher and perhaps also because he was part of a fatal 2024 car crash. The Buccaneers weren't terrible on defense last season, finishing 18th in DVOA and slightly below average in most other categories. But the defense did blow several second-half leads and was a major reason the team missed the playoffs. Getting a pass rush from the edge is necessary if the Buccaneers want to improve their defensive numbers.

Irving, who had an outstanding rookie season at running back, had a rocky second season. His yards per carry went from 5.4 to 3.4 and he missed seven games due to injuries. He had foot and shoulder injuries, which probably affected his production late in the season when he returned. And head coach Todd Bowles' offseason update on Irving's status wasn't great.

"He's coming along fine," Bowles said in late May. "He's working out, he's rough. We expect him sometime back in the summer or the fall and we look forward to him when he gets back."

"Summer or the fall" is a very wide range for a return. Not being able to definitively say he'll be back before fall is concerning. The Buccaneers signed Kenneth Gainwell, who can carry the running game if Irving isn't ready for Week 1. Even if Irving is back for the season opener, Gainwell will help keep him fresh. Irving looked like a potential star for the Buccaneers a year ago, and now there are a lot of questions about him going into his third season.

From the Buccaneers' bye week in 2024 to their bye in 2025, they were 12-3. We've seen this group play at a very high level. If injuries were the reason for last season's second-half swoon, that shouldn't repeat. There's enough star power up and down the roster, particularly on offense, to run away with a bad division. A lot has to go right, starting with Baker Mayfield playing like he did in 2024 and the first half of 2025. But there's a reason the Buccaneers are the betting favorite to win the NFC South. They have the best roster in the division. There's potential for the Buccaneers to be more than an eight- or nine-win team and win the NFL's worst division. They could even win a game or two in the playoffs if they hit their peak.

When the Buccaneers were 4-1 to start last season, all of their wins were by three points or less. The four wins were by a total of nine points. If that luck went the other way, we could be talking about the Buccaneers coming off a 12- or 13-loss season. Even with that early luck in close games they couldn't finish over .500. Baker Mayfield has been a great story, but there was also a reason his career as a starter was hanging on by a thread before the Buccaneers signed him to a scant $4 million deal in 2023. He's up and down, and if there's another down season the Bucs will have some questions about what to do at quarterback. The defense's ceiling probably doesn't sniff the top 10 of the NFL, which means Tampa Bay's offense needs to have a big rebound. If the Buccaneers don't win the NFC South, they might have to retool next offseason and that would likely include moving on from Todd Bowles as head coach. The stakes are high for many Buccaneers this season.

It's hard to buy into the Buccaneers again. I was very high on them before last season after a strong finish to 2024, and that fell apart with a putrid second half to the season. But the Buccaneers have the highest upside of any team in the NFC South. A season with better health should help their offense, and Baker Mayfield in particular. Tampa Bay's defense won't be great, but good enough. I'm not repeating the mistake of being too high on the Buccaneers for this season, but they'll win the NFC South and do so with a winning record. That's not too much to ask.

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