On one-third to won third
· Yahoo Sports
If the season ended today, the Mariners would miss the playoffs. The season doesn’t end today.
The Mariners will play their 54th game on Sunday to finish off the first third of the season. They are currently 25-28 and tied for second place (we’ll call it third) in the AL West, 1 1/2 games out of first and a 1/2 game out of the wild card. It’s been a disappointing start after last year’s banner and expectations for more in 2026. They’ve played hot and cold, with short, aggravating losing streaks between brief spouts of competence. They dropped a series to the worst team in baseball. They took a series from the best. If I had to describe the season in a word: Familiar.
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I don’t want to talk about the Mariners today. You already know the deal. They’ve hit righties well. They’ve hit lefties poorly. Their lopsided roster has forced them to pinch hit to frustrating results. The pitching has been good but inconsistent, and nobody on Opening Day would have guessed the who or the how. Again… familiar.
Instead, I want to talk about seasons, specifically the Mariners’ season (tricked you). How much should we adjust our expectations at the one-third mark?
Some, but not a lot, is the short of it.
While the Mariners have lost more games than they’ve won, they’ve scored more runs than they’ve allowed. That’s important. If we want to consider how they might play going forward, we want to know their “true talent.” One of the best ways to measure “talent” is with run differential.
View LinkLet’s walk through the table, for those unfamiliar. The first column of numbers is good ol’ fashioned win rate. The second is PytheganPat win rate, which uses run differential to estimate wins. The third is Base Runs win rate, which uses more granular information (total bases) to estimate runs to estimate wins. And finally, we have gradient win rate, which is a lesser-known Tom Tango invention that weights run differential to estimate wins (distinguishing between a four-, eight-, and 12-run win).
The table shows the Mariners have played a bit better than their record to this point by each of the win estimators. It also suggests they haven’t been a good team, but they have indeed been a playoff-caliber one in a lackluster American League.
So where are those missing wins? That brings us to our next stop:
The Mariners are 7-13 in one-run games. I plotted them next to the 2025 Mariners, who won more one-run games than any other team in the majors. We can see that at about this point last year they were eight games better in contests decided by one run.
The meaning of one-run games is tricky, so I’m just going to let Russell Carleton at Baseball Prospectus say it:
“To say that there is no skill in a team winning one-run games would be wrong. Teams that are good at scoring runs and preventing the other team from doing so will have a better chance at winning them. The problem is that one-run games actually happen in several different ways, and winning them would rely on the abilities of different parts of the roster. The way in which they unfold, often involving extra innings, adds an extra layer of variability over and above that of a normal game. Baseball is a game with a lot of randomness in it already, and that randomness overwhelms the effect of skill. Based on this, I wouldn’t recommend reading much into a team’s one-run record.”
You might expect a bad team to lose a lot of one-run games, because they lose a lot games period. And vice versa. But a “good” team could still lose a lot of one-run games without it being a reflection on their underlying skill. And vice versa. The Mariners, as it happens, are 15-15 in games decided by more than one run.
When should we start caring about the Mariners actual win rate? Pretty soon, but also, not for a while.
Let’s start with the good news. At this point in the season, through 53 games, actual win rate tells us the least about how a team will play going forward. The following plot shows the correlation between win rate at each game number and win rate the rest of the season.
We can see that winning the first game of the season tells us nothing about a team’s future success. Each game thereafter gives us a bit more information, until about game 100, when the sample size issue flips the other direction. Gradient win rate is generally the best at predicting the future, while actual win rate is the worst. We should expect the Mariners to play a bit better going forward.
OK, the bad news: Wins are wins are wins. The season isn’t played in Excel, and we don’t give trophies to decimals. The Mariners are indeed falling behind. I ran the same tests, but rather than looking at rest-of-season win rate, I looked at full-season win rate. We can see actual win rate becomes the best at predicting the final standings… right about now, as it turns out.
Still, seasons aren’t constants. The Mariners were hot at this time last year, then they collapsed in June, then had a great summer, then collapsed again, then went on one of the great runs in franchise history to close out the year. The 2022 squad was even more extreme, truly bottoming out around this time, before setting the longest win-streak in franchise history. Few teams are great from wire-to-wire, with the 2001 team being the exception.
This is all normal. Despite our irony and bloodlust, the Mariners are a fairly standard baseball team. Their current stretch — stumbling early and then hovering around .500 — is not at all out of place for a playoff-bound club.
I took every 25-game stretch for every team since 1996 and found the median best and worst win rates:
Good teams, bad teams — just about every team besides the 2001 Mariners — play good and bad at some point in a season. The difference between them in the final standings is how good and how bad and how often.
The Mariners worst 25-game stretch to this point was their first one, when they went 10-15 (.400) to open the year. Their best 25-game stretch came on May 8, when they capped a 14-11 (.560) stretch with a win over the Braves.
Let me throw out two things that are true:
- If the Mariners have played their worst baseball this year, a pretty standard hot streak would get them into the 92-96 win range.
- The Mariners probably haven’t played their worst baseball this year.
I’ll leave you with a Rorschach test. The Mariners are still favorites to win the AL West. The rest of the division is very bad. In fact, this is the worst the division has been on May 24 since 2011, a year where each team in the west was within three games of .500. The Rangers would go on to play the rest of the season with the best record in the American League. The Mariners would go on to play with the worst.