UFC Vegas 117’s best betting props, parlays and picks | Allen vs. Costa
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UFC Vegas 117is live this weekend (Sat., May 16, 2026) inside the META APEX and streaming on Paramount+. You can’t be blamed for not knowing this was happening, though. After all, there’s Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano happening on Netflix that night (as well as other fights that are better than anything on this card).
The UFC main event this weekend is Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa in the Featherweight division. That’s OK, but few are turning down Rousey, Carano, Diaz, Ngannou and co. to see that. The co-main is Korean Superboy Doo Ho Choi against Daniel Santos. That’s also a good fight, that no one is going to see.
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Rounding out the main card is Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz, Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards, Timmy Cuamba vs. Bernardo Sopaj and Nikolay Veretennikov vs. Khaos Williams.
The featured “Prelim” is Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan. The “Prelims” also have Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti and Cody Brundage vs. Andres Petroski
As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:
UFC Vegas 117 Main Card Money Line Odds
Arnold Allen (-148) vs. Melquizael Costa (+124)
Allen really needs to win this one or face being totally out of the picture at Featherweight. He’s on a tough run right now with his only wins being over Giga Chikadze and Calvin Kattar, both of whom look like shells of their past selves. His recent losses are to Jean Silva (which was close) and Movsar Evloev and Max Holloway. Those are some great names, but even so, Allen’s not getting any younger — the guys who want his spot are, though!
Costa is on a great win streak right now and he scored a huge finish on Dan Ige (see it here) in his last fight. That was his sixth win in a row. His last loss was back in 2023 to Steve Garcia and there’s no shame in that.
Allen is the slight favorite here, but I’m liking the Dalmatian. And I hope this isn’t recency bias biting me in the butt.
Costa hasn’t looked out of place as the levels of his opponents have increased lately. And I love his versatility. He’s very creative, and potent, on the feet — especially with his kicks. But his grappling is really dangerous. The guillotine he jumped on Andre Fili was a thing of beauty.
Stats wise, Costa’s striking is great on paper. He lands 4.38 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 2.97. That’s a very healthy differential. Allen lands 3.47 a minute, but absorbs only marginally less at 3.04. Costa’s sig. strike landing percentage is average at 49 percent. But Allen’s is below that at 42 percent.
I think Costa’s activity and how much he lands is really going to help him if this fight is a five round striking battle. Costa has only gone the distance three times in UFC and he’s landed 100 or more sig. strikes in two of those. In the other he landed 64.
Allen cracked 100 once, against Gilbert Melendez back in 2019 (Melendez’s last pro fight). In the nine other decisions he’s had in UFC he’s landed an average of 48 sig. strikes.
If this fight isn’t spent entirely standing, then I favor Costa to have the upper hand there, too. He lands two takedowns every fifteen minutes, but has a low accuracy of forty percent. Allen rarely goes for takedowns, but has a good 71 takedown percent. I don’t think Costa needs to get this to the ground, at all, but if it goes there he’s dangerous on top and on bottom. I don’t think Allen will be able to soak up much control time or do any damage down there.
Given all that, I’m pretty comfortable just picking Costa’s moneyline for my best bet.
Best bet: Melquizael Costa moneyline (+124)Doo Ho Choi (+136) vs. Daniel Santos (-162)
This fight could be really fun. But we say that about every fight Choi is in. And we’re usually right.
However, Choi’s the underdog for a reason here. He’s less Korean Superboy and more Korean Superman now that’s turned 35. And it’s been almost two years since his last fight, when he dominated Nate Landwehr and finished him with a crucifix (see it here).
Santos is 31 and, curiously, his last two opponents were also South Korean. He TKO’d Joo Sang Yoo in October and before that he lost to Jeong Yeong Lee.
Choi has to put a stop to that, right?
I’m picking him because I like the idea of that narrative, but he’s also got some size on Santos and is a much more accurate striker (56 percent vs. 40 percent on sig. strikes).
Best bet: Doo Ho Choi (+136)Malcolm Wellmaker (-278) vs. Juan Diaz (+225)
We haven’t seen Wellmaker since he got styled on by short notice opponent Ethyn Ewing. That doesn’t look so bad, in retrospect, given that Ewing now looks like a top ten Bantamweight. Diaz comes into this fight off a brutal spinning back elbow win on Contender Series in October.
Diaz fought with his hands low in that Contender Series fight and he had next to no head movement. I think Wellmaker’s going to find his chin and probably knock him out. If he can’t get that, though, he might end up getting taken down a few times. His takedown defense was shown up by Ewing and Diaz really loves to get guys down and pound on them.
I’ll take the under here, betting that Wellmaker manages to get that stoppage on the feet (since it’s better value than the moneyline).
Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-145)Timmy Cuamba (+130) vs. Bernardo Sopaj (-155)
Cuamba is coming off a fun win over ChangHo Lee in November. He’s now 3-2 in UFC. Sopaj is 1-1 in UFC, but has struggled to stay active. He was signed in 2024 but only had those two fights. His last fight, a win over Ricky Turcios, was well over a year ago.
I like Cuamba in this fight. He’s been more active and seems to be developing a lot between fights. He’s also got five inches of reach on Sopaj. Sopaj is a very active wrestler, but I think Cuamba’s takedown defense (72 percent) will keep him safe from getting grounded.
Best bet: Timmy Cuamba moneyline (+130)Responsible BettingBetting on sports involves risk, so please only wager amounts you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know if struggling with gambling help can be found with the organizations listed below:
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Modestas Bukauskas (-340) vs. Christian Edwards (+270)
We just saw Bukauskas blown up by Nikita Krylov in January (see it here). That snapped a four fight winning streak for the Lithuanian. However, those fights included a win over Paul Craig (who retired after), a split decision over Ion Cutelaba (which was a bit of a robbery) and wins over Raffael Cerqueira and Marcin Prachnio (two of the worst guys on the roster at the time).
Edwards is coming in on short notice for Rodolfo Bellato. He’s 8-4 as a pro and went 5-3 in Bellator. The only name of note on his record is Luke Fernandez, who he lost a decision to for the CFFC title.
I’m not expecting any surprises with this one, despite my reservations over Bukauskas’ recent record. I think Bukauskas likely gets a finish on the newcomer who didn’t know he was fighting two days ago.
Best bet: Modestas Bukauskas moneyline (-340)Khaos Williams (-120) vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (+100)
Williams took an unholy beating in his last fight. Andreas Gustafsson subjected him to exhausting fence fighting and brutal ground and pound. Williams looked like he was in a waking nightmare through that fight and it’s a travesty that his corner didn’t spare him some of that damage. I have to fade a guy after he took such a severe beating.
Veretennikov hasn’t looked that good, though. He beat up Niko Price in February. Big whoop. And he’s 2-3 with losses to Punahele Soriano and Austin Vanderford (who he attacked after the bell).
I’m not expecting much fireworks from either guy in this fight (even though Williams has had some big KOs in the past). I think this will be a pretty boring bout that goes to a decision.
Best bet: Fight to go the distance – Yes (+110)UFC Vegas 117 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds
Tuco Tokkos (+145) vs. Ivan Erslan (-175)
Erslan has not looked good since joining UFC. To be fair, though, he’s not had an easy schedule with Ion Cutelaba and Navajo Stirling. Last time out he suffered a first round submission loss to Jimmy Crute (see it here). Tokkos got his first UFC win last time out, submitting Junior Tafa. Before that he lost to Stirling, too.
Tokkos has some decent size on Erslan, including four inches of reach. That might help him to stay out the way of Erslan’s power striking. He’ll want to avoid that on route to getting this on the ground. I think he might be able to achieve that, mostly because we’re yet to see much potent offence from Erslan yet (despite all those highlight KOs on the Euro scene).
Best bet: Tuco Tokkos moneyline (+145)Tommy Gantt (-198) vs. Artur Minev (+164)
Gantt looked like an interesting prospect on his Contender Series debut last fall. He’s a lanky grappler who is very busy when hunting for submissions. He’s 11-0 as a pro, but is already 33. He’s coming off a long wrestling career and is training out of Daniel Cormier academy now. Minev is 7-0 and TKO’d Derek Campos in Fury FC in January.
Minev has wrecked shop on the regional circuit, but I don’t think he’ll be prepared for the wrestling calibre Gantt will be bringing into the cage. I’ll take the moneyline here, since that’s all that’s been released. But I would also take Gantt minus points on the spread.
Best bet: Tommy Gantt moneyline (-198)Ketlen Vieira (+136) vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (-162)
It’s a crime that Cavalcanti is on the undercard here. She might fight for a title this year. The Portuguese fighter is on a eight fight winning streak with five of those coming in UFC. Last time out she boxed circles around former title challenger Mayra Bueno Silva. Vieira has given us good showings in losses to Norma Dumont and Kayla Harrison, but doesn’t look like the future title challenger we thought she was back when when she got by Cat Zingano in 2018.
Cavalcanti is a decision artist and she’s gotten very good at Sean Strickland-like backwards fighting. Vieira is a brawler and I think she’s going to get chewed up by that Cavalcanti jab as she wades forwards.
Best bet: Jacqueline Cavalcanti moneyline (-162)Andre Petroski (-218) vs. Cody Brundage (+180)
Both these guys feel like they are fighting through things right now. Brundage seems especially troubled. He’s taken three fights without much time off this year. He lost the previous two, to Cam Rowston and Dante Johnson. In the Johnson fight he seemed to totally run out of steam and/or desire. He also seemed oblivious (or apathetic) to the pleas of his corner to wake up. Petroski has taken some time off since his TKO loss to Rowston last year. That loss for him came after he, like Brundage, jumped into another fight really soon after a loss.
I’m going to guess that Petroski is in a better place than Brundage is right now and that Petroski’s wrestling attack will be enough to sap Brundage’s strength and lead to a decision win.
Best bet: Andre Petroski moneyline (-218)Alice Ardelean (-205) vs. Polyana Viana (+170)
Viana is on a three fight losing streak and hasn’t fought in over a year. Those three losses were all finishes. Her last win was over Jinh Yu Frey in 2022. Ardelean has shown herself to be a pretty fun fighter. She won two decisions last year, thanks to her tough brawling style. I think she probably does more in this fight and thus earns the judges’ decision.
Best bet: Alice Ardelean moneyline (-205)Daniel Barez (+120) vs. Luis Gurule (-142)
Gurule is still looking for his first UFC win after three post-Contender Series appearances. Last time out, in February, he lost a lopsided decision to Alden Coria. Barez hasn’t fought since March, 2025 when he was submitted by Andre Lima. Lima could be a Flyweight contender, if he could stay active/healthy.
Both these guys have had a very tough time finding success in the Octagon. Barez is a wrestle boxer, but he gets hit too much. Gurule is a straight boxer who doesn’t land enough. I think Gurule might get his first win here, especially since Barez might have a little ring rust.
Best bet: Luis Gurule moneyline (-142)Shauna Bannon (+210) vs. Nicolle Calliari (-258)
Bannon’s greatest achievement to date was almost being slept with a headkick and then somehow getting an armbar win (see it here). Last time out, though, she was beaten by Sam Hughes. Calliari was pieced apart by the much improved Carli Judice in her last fight (where she ate 109 sig. strikes and landed just 32). Calliari is the favorite here, most likely because Vegas thinks Bannon doesn’t have the striking to hurt her and that she can get Bannon down a couple of times.
Where’s the fun in that, though? I’ll take Bannon. She has big moments in her fights and I think those might be enough to get past the somewhat anemic Calliari.
Best bet: Shauna Bannon moneyline (+210)UFC Vegas 117 Long Shots!
Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …
Melquizael Costa to win by submission (+600)I can’t get that guillotine win over Andre Fili out my head. I think Costa might have some success on the feet with Arnold Allen and goad Allen into wanting to mix things up. If he shoots on Costa (who is quite taller than him), I think that could lead to a tight guillotine and a finish.
Three-bet parlay: Jacqueline Cavalcanti, Timmy Cuamba and Doo Ho Choi to win (+777)Look at those odds! That has to be lucky, right?! Cavalcanti should be a bigger favorite than she is in this fight. I have her paired with two slight underdogs. Cuamba has a lot of size over Bernado Sopaj, who has been out for over a year. Doo Ho Choi still has aura (as the kid’s say) and I think he avenges his countrymen on Saturday.
Andre Petroski vs. Cody Brundage – Point to be deducted (+2000)Weird stuff can happen in a Cody Brundage fight. And I think those refs are getting tougher on these fighters. I can see Brundage landing multiple groin shots or perhaps holding onto the fence or shorts enough times to get a deduction.
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