Mel Kiper Jr. reveals how NIL impacts NFL Draft, players’ decisions to return to college
· Yahoo Sports
A year ago, shortly after the 2025 NFL Draft ended, five quarterbacks appeared in CBS Sports’ way-too-early mock. Fast-forward and only Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson are appearing in some first-round mock drafts – neither of which were projected at that point.
The approach to draft decisions has changed since the NIL era began in college football as more players, notably quarterbacks, go back to school for another season with hopes of improving their stock. But to ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr., there’s some risk that comes with the possible reward in those cases.
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When the NFL announced the group of underclassmen to declare for the 2026 draft, a downward trend continued. More players are choosing another season of experience in college instead of the draft, which can help them go higher on the board the following year. Jayden Daniels is a recent example of someone who ran it back and, after winning the Heisman Trophy, went from a projected Day 2 pick to No. 2 overall.
However, Kiper said that’s not always the case. There are multiple factors that come into play both during the college season and in the evaluation process that show both sides of the decision.
“They can stay in college and develop, and sometimes it helps, sometimes it doesn’t,” Kiper said Thursday on a conference call with reporters. “Sometimes, when you’re getting paid, do you kind of just get a little complacent because you’re already a professional? … You’re playing, but you already are getting a lot of money to play college football. Like I say, does complacency set in? Realizing, ‘Hey, I’m basically a pro before I’m a pro.’ So again, it’s a good and a bad.
“Everything has the good and bad things that are going to be happening because of it. So I look at some of these guys, some guys we thought were going to have great years because they went back for another season, that everything was going to come together, and it didn’t. So that’s why even for next year’s draft, we look at it on paper and say, ‘Wow, this is going to be spectacular.’ Well, we’ll see.”
In the initial way-too-early mock draft last year, quarterbacks such as Drew Allar and Garrett Nussmeier were listed as potential first-round picks. Neither player is generating first-round grades while others in the mock, such as LaNorris Sellers and Arch Manning, are staying in school this year.
The 2027 draft is also considered a deeper quarterback class. Manning is one of the headliners along with Sellers, Dante Moore, Darian Mensah and John Mateer, among others. That shift is part of the unknown when it comes to players opting to return to college, Kiper said.
“They were talking about six, seven quarterbacks in the first round back in August. Now, we’ve got one, maybe two. That’s it,” Kiper said. “So again, the best-laid plans, right? You never know about next year’s draft. On paper right now, because a lot of guys for next year’s draft did decide to go back and they went back for another year, do they play to the level of their talent? We’ll have to wait and see on that.”
Mel Kiper Jr.: ‘So many factors’ in draft decisions
Dante Moore was one of the biggest examples of a player who returned to school despite being projected as the possible No. 2 quarterback in the 2026 NFL Draft. At the time, it seemed like a sign of the times in the NIL era. However, Moore told On3 in January that NIL was not the driving factor in his decision, and he’s looking for another year of experience before heading to the league.
Moore showed flashes of his potential at Oregon this past year, but admitted there are areas he can improve. That, according to Mel Kiper Jr., is an example of college football being a de facto “developmental” league for the NFL.
Of course, there’s also an injury risk, and Kiper pointed out players used to get a type of insurance policy in case they suffered a career-ending injury. But with that, he made it clear it’s not always a clear-cut decision for players considering the draft.
“You’re getting paid to play college football. So why not stay and use that as kind of a minor league, a developmental league to make yourself a better player?” Kiper said. “And then, you’re always risking injury by playing another year. So that weighs on these kids’ minds. ‘Well, I had a good year. What if I got hurt?’ Again, there’s so many factors that go into it. That is not an easy decision to make.”