Finding a March Madness champion using historical analysis
· Yahoo Sports
Tonight begins one of the greatest sporting events in America, the NCAA Tournament. A month-long journey chalk-full of outstanding basketball and drama. The impact can be felt from beyond the average diehard sports fan. Your coworkers, friends, and family who haven’t watched a second of college basketball maybe ever are in your bracket pools and often times are winning them.
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My sister has been in my friends’ and I’s March Madness pool 11 years running now. All of my friends are like me, diehard sports fans. We live for this time of the year. I wouldn’t be writing this full article detailing my breakdown on my method to choosing a champion if I didn’t believe this was the greatest sporting event in the world. I have multiple spreadsheets dedicated to this. My sister, while she enjoys sports on occasion, especially baseball and fastpitch, has probably never watched a full college basketball game in her life. When she fills out her brackets, she goes by team names she’s seen before, what team names are fun to say, and, of course, mascots. It’s not uncommon that she will still finish in the top half of our pool every year.
That’s why we love this tournament. The nature of a 68-team, single-elimination tournament creates natural chaos. It truly feels random. We remember the legendary runs of underdogs like Saint Peter’s, Loyola Chicago, Florida Gulf Coast, and plenty more. But one of my favorite betting handicappers once said, “Anybody can win five games; it’s impossible to win six.”
What he means is it is completely common for teams to go on a magical run to make it all the way to the national championship, but that’s where it stops. While the tournament feels like it’s always up for grabs and anybody can get hot and win it, that’s not the case. Sure, this is sports after all, and anything can happen, but historically speaking, it’s the elite teams who nearly always win. In 2023, 5-seed San Diego State and 9-seed Florida Atlantic faced off in an all-time Final Four game that pitted two teams that nobody thought could get there. A year later, the 11-seed N.C. State Wolfpack went on an even crazier run to the Final Four. But none of these teams won. It was the historically great UConn Huskies who won in both 2023 and 2024.
When it comes to filling out a bracket and trying to nail the national champion, your options are immediately limited from the start. Sure, you can try and outsmart your group by picking a lower seed that enters the tournament hot or shoots the lights out, but you’re almost never going to win that way.
However, you can nearly fill out the first three, four, or five rounds in whichever way you want. Go ahead, pick a 12-5 upset, always take one 11-6 upset. Just as long as your bracket champion is one of the elite teams.
So if we’re trying to choose from the elite teams, we need to evaluate what exactly makes up an elite team. I started using this historical analysis in 2023, making this my fourth time around filling out a bracket with my own in-depth analysis. I’m 3 for 3 so far in assembling a group that has the correct champion, let’s make it 4 for 4.
Every tournament champion dating back to the 2001 Duke team has been in the top 57 offensively, top 44 defensively, and top 25 overall on KenPom prior to the tournament beginning. These parameters would mean the following teams in this tournament would make historical sense:
- Iowa
- Saint Mary’s
- Kansas
- Texas Tech
- Louisville
- St. John’s
- Tennessee
- Nebraska
- Virginia
- Connecticut
- Vanderbilt
- Gonzaga
- Michigan State
- Purdue
- Illinois
- Iowa State
- Houston
- Florida
- Arizona
- Michigan
- Duke
While it does narrow down our field from 68 choices to 21, that’s still a lot of teams.
One of the biggest outliers from the pool of the 23 champions since 2001 is the 2014 Connecticut Huskies. As a 7 seed, the Huskies, led by Shabazz Napier, went on one of the craziest runs in tournament history. They first knocked off 10 seed Saint Joseph’s in overtime, then upset 2 seed Villanova. They pulled off another upset in the Sweet 16, beating the second seed Iowa State before reaching the Final Four with another upset over Tom Izzo’s Michigan State Spartans. The Huskies finished the job with a 10-point win over Florida and a six-point win over Kentucky in the national championship.
The Huskies entered the dance as the 57th-ranked offense but the 12th-ranked defense. They were 25th overall on KenPom. Prior to the Cinderella Huskies, the worst offensive team on KenPom to win the tournament was the 2011 UConn Huskies, who ranked 21st.
So, if we were to eliminate this one outlier team, our criteria for finding a champion would drop to a team with a top 21 offense, top 44 defense, and in the top 20 overall.
Our new list:
- Texas Tech
- Louisville
- Vanderbilt
- Purdue
- Illinois
- Iowa State (has the 21st-ranked offense)
- Houston
- Florida
- Arizona
- Michigan
- Duke
That is starting to look like a much more reasonable list of teams to pick from, down to 11 teams. Iowa State just barely makes the cut, ranking 21st in offensive efficiency.
Another outlier team we can examine is the 2003 Syracuse Orange. While they did have outstanding freshman Carmelo Anthony, the Orange entered the tournament as the 20th-ranked team overall on KenPom. The ‘03 Orange and ‘14 Huskies were the two lowest overall ranked teams on KenPom to win the tournament heading in. This can thin down our list slightly, making 21 of the last 23 (91.3%) national champions have been top 21 offensively, top 44 defensively, and top 15 overall.
Using this next set of parameters, our third version of the list is:
- Vanderbilt
- Purdue
- Illinois
- Iowa State
- Houston
- Florida
- Arizona
- Michigan
- Duke
These would be the nine teams I will be picking from when filling out my bracket. Duke, despite being in a region with historical powerhouses, is the only team in the East that fits the 21 of 23 champion qualifiers. Arizona and Purdue are two of the West region, and Michigan and Iowa State also from the Midwest. The South is the most loaded of the teams that qualify. Florida, Houston, Illinois, and Vanderbilt all fit the bill.
From this point, you can go any number of ways you like to choose between these nine teams. One of the most popular trends that has been reported every year around this time is the famous Week 6 AP Poll. All but one champion (2003 Syracuse) has been ranked in the top 12 in the AP Poll in week 6 of the season.
This year’s top 12 in the Week 6 AP Poll:
12. Alabama
11. Louisville
10. BYU
9. Michigan State
8. Gonzaga
7. Houston
6. Purdue
5. UConn
4. Iowa State
3. Duke
2. Michigan
1. Arizona
Cross-referencing this with our list of nine teams that we got from KenPom trends, this would eliminate the following:
- Vanderbilt
- Illinois
- Florida
Which would bring our list down to six teams:
- Purdue
- Iowa State
- Houston
- Arizona
- Michigan
- Duke
Some other criteria I have included over the years when evaluating championship teams have been more data points from KenPom. I’ve looked at where teams sit in the initial KenPom rankings, as well as their offense, defense, and overall efficiencies in the teams’ first 10, 20 and 30 games. The most telling of these data points has been where teams sit in overall efficiency after their 10th, 20th and 30th games. Since 2012, every champion but the 2014 UConn team has been in the top 8 after their 10th game and top 10 after their 20th and 30th games. From our latest list of six teams, Houston would just barely miss the cut, ranking 10th in overall efficiency after their 10th game.
Every year, the talking heads always bring up the same factors in determining the best college basketball teams. You’ll hear the same buzzwords: physical, experienced, well-coached, etc. Let’s hone in on that second word, “experienced.” Using KenPom’s player stats, the top contributor of 17 of the 23 national champions since 2002 has been either a junior or a senior. The last underclassman to be KenPom’s top contributor on a title team was freshman Jahlil Okafor on the 2015 Duke Blue Devils.
The top contributors from our list of five teams:
- Purdue – Braden Smith – Senior
- Iowa State – Joshua Jefferson – Senior
- Arizona – Koa Peat – Freshman
- Michigan – Yaxel Lendeborg – Senior
- Duke – Cameron Boozer – Freshman
Now, 17 of 23 isn’t quite as strong a correlation as some of the other trends we’ve examined before, but it’s definitely worth noting, especially considering the last one to break the trend was over a decade ago. Also important to note that the top contributors did have their tournament stats included.
All in all, one of your national champions will almost certainly be
Teams who fit the parameters to win, but be some sort of outlier:
- Iowa
- Saint Mary’s
- Kansas
- St. John’s
- Tennessee
- Nebraska
- Virginia
- Connecticut
- Gonzaga
- Michigan State
Teams who would make historical sense but would be crazy:
- Texas Tech
- Louisville
Teams who makenearly complete historical sense:
- Vanderbilt
- Illinois
- Florida
Teams who make complete historical sense:
- Purdue
- Iowa State
- Houston
- Arizona
- Michigan
- Duke
Best of luck to your brackets and your bets and enjoy the madness.