Jackson Merrill looks to break out in 2026
· Yahoo Sports
“I’m trying to make more contact, strikeout a little bit less and just hit for more power, a little bit.”
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Jackson Merrill outlined his goals for his spring camp during an interview at his clubhouse locker when camp began in February.
He noted that although he weighed about the same, he had made changes to his diet and workout routine in order to get stronger. His goal was to hit the ball harder but not decrease his speed in the outfield or on the base paths. Stealing more bases is his goal in not gaining weight and slowing down.
Earlier this month, ESPN released a list of their top 100 MLB players. Fernando Tatis Jr. is the top ranked player on the San Diego Padres at No. 14, but Merrill was second at No. 43 with Manny Machado at No. 47.
David Schoenfield of ESPN noted that the staff involved in the rankings believe Merrill will have a return to form after suffering multiple injuries in 2025 that contributed to a “sophomore slump” for the centerfielder. They believe his key to achieving superstardom as a player is to decrease his chase rate.
Almost the top rookie in 2024
Merrill finished second to starting pitcher Paul Skenes of the Pittsburg Pirates in the 2024 Rookie of the Year voting. He was the top position player in the voting by far and only lost out to a once-in-a-generation talent in the 21-year-old pitcher. Scenes posted a 1.96 ERA in 133 innings pitched. Although Merrill lost in that competition, he had the best season for a Padres rookie ever.
Promise for 2025
Expectations were high for 2025, despite Merrill only going into his age 22 season. Unfortunately, a series of injuries derailed what could have been another step toward superstardom for the converted shortstop. In early April, Merrill injured his hamstring and was placed on the IL. That injury kept him out until early May, and he was playing well until a concussion sent him back to the IL on June 15. He returned a week later but struggled at the plate, seeing his batting average steadily drop through the rest of June and July. On Aug. 14, he suffered an ankle sprain and bone bruise which put him back on the IL until Sept. 1.
After his return in September, Merrill hit .275/.320/.626 with seven home runs and 16 RBI. He had seven doubles and two triples for a .946 OPS. Fully recovered from all his injuries, Merrill showed what he was capable of.
Despite all these injuries and struggling with his effectiveness after the concussion, Merrill still managed a 112 OPS+ (12 percent better than the average player) and a 3.0 fWAR. He had 16 home runs and 67 RBI total for the year.
What can 2026 become?
FanGraphs, in their 2026 projections, see a 25-homer season with 75 RBI. For his brief career, Merrill has a 35.9% chase rate which puts him in the lower 10 percent of MLB players. He was in the 14 percent in 2024 and the seven percent in 2025, chasing much more last season than in his rookie year.
In his ESPN rankings, Schoenfield believes 30 home runs is in the cards for Merrill, if he can stay healthy this year. His own words tell us that he is aware of his areas for improvement and will be working to add to his game. Merrill is a free swinger, that probably won’t change much but being more selective about what he swing at is the goal.
Padres players have looked much more disciplined this spring, swinging more at pitches in the zone and not chasing outside the zone as much as in the past. Merrill ranks highly amongst MLB players in barrel% at 82 in 2025 but his bat speed and hard-hit percentage are in the middle of the field. His BB% was at 31 last season and eight in 2024 so he has improved his walk rate somewhat.
The statement he made at the start of spring camp reflects his awareness of his weaknesses. His 2026 spring numbers only reflect 30 at-bats so far. He has two home runs and four RBI with four doubles. His BABIP is .300 which suggests that his .267 batting average reflects some poor luck. His OBP is .313, something he needs to improve as the team gets closer to the start of the season. He is slugging .600, with six extra-base hits among his eight hits but has eight strikeouts for a 25% K-rate.
Next steps to superstar status
Results are not what is focused on in spring, process is. That is not something we can measure, and the regular season will show if Merrill is able to reign in his aggressiveness enough to bring down his strikeouts and increase his OBP. His power is going to come with his maturity as a player. He turns 23 in April and is not yet in his prime. It is commonly accepted that players enter their prime between 26-29, with their year 27 playing season being their peak as a hitter.
Merrill has the potential to be an MLB superstar. He has already shown he is among the best at his position, being ranked No. 4 by MLB.
He still has plenty of time to reach his potential but indicators show that 2026 should be an important step in that progression. If he can stay healthy, Merrill can regain the momentum he showed in his rookie season and rocket up the ranks of the best players in the game.