Which Teams Have Already Played Their Way Off NCAA Tournament Bubble?
· Yahoo Sports
CHARLOTTE, NC - MARCH 10: SMU Mustangs forward Chance Puryear (1) during the ACC Men's basketball tournament between the Stanford Cardinal and the Pitt Panthers on March 10, 2026 at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C. (Photo by John Byrum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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Icon Sportswire via Getty ImagesMere days ago, the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament bubble picture was an optimistic place for all teams involved.
At the time, all of those schools still had games left to play in an effort to strengthen their resumes, and secure a trip to March Madness. But much has changed since then across the conference tournament landscape.
With just a few days remaining to sort out at-large bids, here’s where teams currently stand.
Likely In: Santa Clara, NC State, Miami (OH), USF, UCF, VCU
Once again, expanding this list out to six, just to account for the mass of non-power conference teams here.
Santa Clara’s win over St. Mary’s in the West Coast Conference Tournament was arguably all it needed to get in, especially given how many bubble teams lost elsewhere. UCF and NC State performed to expectations. South Florida and VCU are still alive in their conference tournaments.
The biggest debate come Selection Sunday will be around Miami (Ohio) and how the RedHawks are viewed by the committee after finishing the regular season unbeaten but then losing to an 8-seed in the first round of the MAC Tournament. Like Santa Clara, their position is helped by losses around the bubble already.
Last Four In: SMU, Missouri, Texas, New Mexico
SMU Mustangs (20-13, 8-10 in ACC)
SMU may have done enough for their NCAA Tournament hopes by simply winning big against a hapless Syracuse squad in the ACC Tournament. The close loss to a ranked Louisville squad won’t harm the Mustangs, and the team is still top-40 in NET with nine wins (in 22 games) against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents.
Missouri Tigers (20-12, 10-8 in SEC)
Missouri’s resume was already relatively solid going into the SEC Tournament, and a close loss to an NCAA-bound Kentucky team does little harm to their resume. The Tigers’ five wins away from home and nine victories against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams should be enough cushion, despite the lower NET than some bubble peers.
Texas Longhorns (18-14, 9-9 in SEC)
On the other hand, the Longhorns didn’t help their bubble case with an upset loss to Ole Miss in the second round of the SEC Tournament. But a 6-9 record against Quad 1 teams potentially gets Texas into the Big Dance just the same, along with their current NET ranking at No. 42 overall, especially with few teams below them poised to move up in the bubble conversation.
New Mexico Lobos (23-9, 13-7 in Mountain West)
New Mexico’s place “in” the field is tepid, but would potentially be solidified with a win over San Diego State in the league tournament on Friday night. The Lobos are 1-1 against the Aztecs so far this season, but have a bubble case bolstered by nine wins away from home and wins over teams like SDSU, VCU and Santa Clara already.
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - MARCH 11: Tre Singleton #8 of the Northwestern Wildcats battles for a rebound with Reed Bailey #1 of the Indiana Hoosiers in the second half during the second round of the 2026 Big Ten Men's Basketball Tournament at the United Center on March 11, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Geoff Stellfox/Getty Images)
Getty ImagesLast Four Out: Oklahoma, Stanford, California, Indiana
Oklahoma Sooners (19-14, 7-11 in SEC)
Oklahoma solves a lot of its problems simply by beating Arkansas on Friday night in the SEC Tournament. Without that, OU has 10 wins between Quad 1 and Quad 2, and eight away from home, but a losing record in conference play. If the Sooners make the field, it may happen at the sacrifice of rival Texas’s inclusion.
Stanford Cardinal (20-12, 9-9 in ACC)
Stanford suffered a worst-case scenario in the ACC Tournament, falling by one to a sub-.500 Pittsburgh team in its first game. The defeat puts the Cardinal outside the NET’s top-60 now, despite its nine wins against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents. Most bubble competitors also have a better NET rating than Stanford.
California Golden Bears (21-11, 9-9 in ACC)
Similarly, Cal also bowed out of the ACC Tournament in game one, albeit against a better-seeded team, in Florida State. But the Golden Bears are now down to No. 68 in NET, which may negate quality wins over Stanford (two), SMU, North Carolina, UCLA and Miami (FL). They’ll be sweating on Selection Sunday.
Indiana Hoosiers (18-14, 9-11 in Big Ten)
The Hoosiers’ already tepid tournament hopes effectively perished after a 13-point loss to (15-19) Northwestern this week. Indiana is No. 41 in NET, but has lost six of seven, finished under-.500 in the Big Ten and lacks an impressive resume away from home at just 4-10. It would be shocking to see them make the field at this point.
Next Four Out: Auburn, Cincinnati, San Diego State, Seton Hall
Auburn and Cincinnati failed to do enough to elevate their bubble standing this week, and the Bearcats even fired coach Wes Miller on Friday (according to ESPN’s Pete Thamel and Jeff Borzello) on the assumption that they would miss the field again.
The other two teams here, on the other hand, still have a chance to improve their standings. Seton Hall could get right back into the mix with an upset win over St. John’s on Friday in the Big East Tournament. And for as much as New Mexico needs to beat San Diego State to secure betting bubble footing, the Aztecs could do the same by knocking off the Lobos.