Kentucky vs. Florida viewing info, what to watch for, odds, and predictions

· Yahoo Sports

Kentucky Basketball has survived and advanced again, this time holding off a tenacious and vampire-like Missouri Tigers team 78-72 Thursday afternoon in the Second Round of the SEC Tournament. Now, they will get a third shot at the SEC’s top seed, the Florida Gators, on Friday afternoon in the Quarterfinals. Game time is at 1:00 PM ET/12:00 PM CT in Nashville on ESPN.

The Cats led Mizzou by as many as 16 in the second half with just over 14:30 to play. But by now, it should be expected that even a 16-point lead isn’t safe. Sure enough, the Tigers came all the way back to take a 70-69 lead with just over two minutes remaining.

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Thankfully, a gritty defensive effort combined with clutch shot-making by Otega Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen enabled the Cats to pull out the win and advance to the Quarterfinals.

It’s no secret who Florida is. They are on an 11-game winning streak entering Friday afternoon, with two of those wins over Kentucky. While the Cats lost to Florida by only nine and seven points in those two games, they fell behind by large margins in the second half of both. That can’t happen a third time around.

Florida is firmly in contention for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, at the time this story was sent to press, has them projected as the fourth No. 1 seed. They have rebounded from a 9-5 start and 0-1 record in the SEC to put together an impressive résumé. The Gators are battle-tested from a ridiculous non-conference schedule.

Here is what you need to watch for in Round 3 of Cats vs. Gators.

3-point shooting…for both teams

This will likely decide the game on Friday. If Kentucky can hit some 3-pointers, that will extend Florida’s defense out to the perimeter and allow for better looks inside for the Cats.

On the other side, Kentucky can’t let Florida get hot from beyond the arc. It’s a pick-your-poison matchup because if you focus on their guards, Florida’s bigs can beat you inside. Still, though, don’t give Florida any open looks from beyond the perimeter because they do have shooters that can knock down open 3-pointers.

The first eight minutes

This is where the game will be decided. If Kentucky doesn’t fall behind big early, they will have a chance. If Florida races out to a double-digit lead as they did in Lexington just five days ago, that’s likely too much for a Kentucky team playing a third straight day to overcome. The Wildcats have to find a way to keep Florida from having multiple kill shots in the first half to have any hope of pulling out the W.

Collin Chandler

It’s simple, the Cats need Collin Chandler to make multiple, if not several, splashes from beyond the arc. If he does that, the Cats can put Florida in a tough spot defensively. But if the Gators shut him down and limit his touches and open looks, it could be another long afternoon for the Cats against Florida.

Players to Watch

F Thomas Haugh: 6-9, 215 lbs.
  • 17.2 PPG
  • 6.1 RPG
  • 47.1 FG%
  • 34.4 3-PT FG%
  • 75.6 FT%
  • 33.4 MPG

Haugh is a member of the All-SEC First Team and scored 17 and 20 points in two games against Kentucky this season. He made three 3-pointers in Florida’s 84-77 win Saturday in Lexington.

F/C Alex Condon: 6-11, 236 lbs.
  • 14.8 PPG
  • 7.6 RPG
  • 43 BLK
  • 54.5 FG%
  • 30.5 MPG

Condon is on the All-SEC Third Team and leads the Gators in blocked shots with 43.

G Xaivian Lee: 6-4, 180 lbs.
  • 11.6 PPG
  • 129 ast.
  • 41.5 FG%
  • 27.7 3-PT FG%
  • 78.7 FT%
  • 27.1 MPG

Lee is a veteran with over 100 games played in his college career and is a sneaky weapon from beyond the arc. He made four 3-pointers in the first game against Kentucky back on Valentine’s Day.

C Rueben Chinyelu: 6-10, 265 lbs.
  • 11.4 PPG
  • 11.7 RPG
  • 58.3 FG%
  • 69% FT
  • 24.6 MPG

Chinyelu is a beast and a member of the SEC’s All-Defensive Team. He’s had over 10 rebounds in both games against Kentucky this season.

Kentucky Basketball vs. Florida Gators

  • Time: 1 PM ET on March 13, 2026
  • Location: Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Announcers: Karl Ravech, Jimmy Dykes, and  Alyssa Lang will call the action.
  • Online Stream: WatchESPN and the ESPN app.
  • Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens have the call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
  • Replay: WatchESPN and the ESPN network (check local listings)
  • Rosters: UK | UF
  • Stats to Know: UK | UF
  • KenPom: UK | UF
  • Team Sheet: UK | UF
  • Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has Florida favored by 11.5 points with an over/under of 159.5 points. EvanMiya (10.4%), KenPom (18%), BartTorvik (16%), and DRatings (23.1%) all see the Cats as heavy underdogs.
  • Predictions: EvanMiya (84-71), BartTorvik (84-73), and KenPom (83-73) all have Florida winning by double digits, while DRatings has it at 88-80 for the Gators. Florida is a legitimate title contender and did sweep Kentucky, but it’s hard for teams to beat a conference rival three times in the same season, and both of the previous matchups were decided by single digits. With the game being played in what should be a heavy BBN presence in Nashville, I’m calling for a 79-78 victory, Kentucky!

Sound off in the comments on how you think this one plays out!

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